Reading the numbers
Same numbers, different games: reading sports statistics
Compare goals, possessions and innings with worked examples, and learn why a 60% probability keeps the same meaning across sports.
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Understand the game.
Understand the game behind the numbers. Explore sports statistics, practical guides and match videos.
EDITOR’S PICK / Reading the numbers
Right winner, wrong score: reviewing Fukuoka and Gimcheon on 10 October
We compare predictions saved before kick-off with official results: Fukuoka's correct outcome pick, Gimcheon's miss, and the limits of stale evidence and probability claims.
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13 articles
Reading the numbers
Does Higher xG Mean a Team Should Have Won?
Why can identical xG totals describe different scoring possibilities? Original worked examples and official StatsBomb and Opta definitions clarify chance quality, execution and match review.
Reading the numbers
Can 120 Points Be Better Offense Than 126? Pace and Efficiency Explained
More points do not always mean greater efficiency. Compare possessions, test scoring assumptions and calculate a combined rating with original worked basketball examples.
By sport
Sports Toto Win-Draw-Lose Round 59: Where Odds and Public Votes Disagree, ₩159M Jackpot (Deadline Oct 10, 11PM KST)
Round 59's projected jackpot is ₩159,170,250 with zero carryover. Three of 14 matches show the betting odds and public votes pointing to different outcomes.
Rules & terms
Two wins from three or twenty from thirty: why sample size matters
See how one extra result changes a small sample, and why both sample size and comparable conditions matter.
Rules & terms
Implied probability: why does 2.00 become 50%?
Work through reciprocal prices, totals above 100% and percentage points using fictional numbers.
Reading the numbers
Three windows on team form — last 3, 5 and 10 matches
The last three, five and ten matches overlap. Use points-per-game examples, separate comparison periods and checks on opponents, venues and lineups to read form carefully.
Reading the numbers
Why odds move — what line movement is actually telling you
Work through a fictional move from 2.10 to 1.85, and distinguish a measured price change from an unverified explanation.
Reading the numbers
What the table does not tell you — stage of season and motivation
Separate verified fixture and lineup information from assumptions about fatigue and motivation, with a practical pre-match note.
Reading the numbers
How much should head-to-head record actually matter?
Use a fictional four-match record to separate venue, competition and lineup effects from the headline win count.
By sport
How to read a baseball standings table — four things behind the win rate
Calculate games back, then read run differential, remaining fixtures and venue splits. Worked examples show what a standings table explains—and what it cannot settle.