Analysis recorded · Sep 12 09:20 UTC
Data as of · 2026-09-24 23:06
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
AI Predicted
Kyoto Win
Prediction Correct!Compare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
Kyoto Win
Confidence
60%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Key Analysis Points
Kyoto has a superior head-to-head record over Okayama, especially in recent years.
Both teams show similar recent form, but Kyoto's experience in the higher division (J1) is a slight advantage.
Okayama struggles to score consistently, while Kyoto's forwards, like Utaka, have proven match-winning ability.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
2 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick. Confidence is limited — treat this match as uncertain.
Prediction: Kyoto Win
Score: 1 - 2
Based on historical data to mid-2024, Kyoto Sanga FC has outperformed Okayama in direct encounters and has more experience facing higher-level opposition. Okayama's home advantage and solid defensive structure could make the match close, but their inconsistent attack is a concern. Kyoto's slight edge in attacking firepower and pedigree tips the prediction in their favor, though the chance of a draw remains significant given both teams' recent form and goal-scoring trends.
Prediction: Okayama Win
Score: 1 - 0
Okayama edges Kyoto primarily due to home advantage and league context. While Kyoto holds a historical head-to-head advantage (10-6-10 all-time), the 2026 matchup context matters more: Okayama occupies 12th in J2 with slightly positive momentum (23 pts, -3 GD), whereas Kyoto struggles in J1's relegation zone (16th, 18 pts, -7 GD). Kyoto's poor away form is particularly concerning against a team stronger at home. However, low confidence reflects data from June 2024—actual 2026 form, squad changes, and league transitions are unknown. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair given both teams' recent matches averaging ~1 goal per game.
Prediction: Kyoto Win
Score: 1 - 2
Historically, Kyoto Sanga has maintained a superior head-to-head record against Fagiano Okayama, winning the last four competitive encounters prior to mid-2024. Kyoto's experience in the top flight (J1) provides them with a tactical edge and a higher quality of squad depth compared to Okayama, who have traditionally operated as a mid-to-upper table J2 side. Okayama's defensive vulnerabilities, which were evident in their 2024 form, often struggle against the high-pressing and possession-based style that Kyoto employs. Kyoto's 4-3-3 system often overloads the midfield, making it difficult for Okayama's 4-2-3-1 to transition effectively. Unless Okayama can exploit Kyoto's aggressive fullbacks on the counter, the away side is likely to dictate the tempo. Given the historical trend and the gap in league pedigree, Kyoto enters this fixture as the favorite to secure all three points, likely in a controlled performance.
Max probability 45.0% · Gap 15.0%p
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Falling odds mean money moved onto that side.
Compared across 24 bookmakers.
Recorded · 2026-09-24 23:06
Okayama · 2026 · 6th · 6W 2D 4L
Kyoto · 2026 · 8th · 5W 3D 2L
Records as of this match, not current form.
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
3
Draws
2
Away Wins
5
Recent matches
Last meeting: 2026-04-11 (5-1)
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Strong upward trend
Sharp decline
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Overall
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 2
At Home
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 3
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Overall
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
At Home
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Away
Best: Unbeaten 2
Rank and record by season
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | J League | #6 | 6W 2D 4L | — | 0.33 / 0.0 |
| 2025 | J League | #13 | 12W 9D 17L | -9 GD | 0.89 / 1.13 |
| 2024 | J League Division | #5 | 17W 14D 7L | +19 GD | 1.26 / 0.76 |
| 2023 | J League Division | #10 | 13W 19D 10L | 0 GD | 1.17 / 1.17 |
| 2022 | J League Division | #3 | 20W 12D 10L | 72 pts +19 GD | 1.45 / 1.0 |
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | J League | #8 | 5W 3D 2L | — | 0.44 / 0.0 |
| 2025 | J League | #3 | 19W 11D 8L | +22 GD | 1.63 / 1.05 |
| 2024 | J League | #14 | 12W 11D 15L | -12 GD | 1.13 / 1.45 |
| 2023 | J League | #13 | 12W 4D 18L | -5 GD | 1.18 / 1.32 |
| 2022 | J League | #16 | 8W 12D 14L | 36 pts -8 GD | 0.88 / 1.12 |
Registered players with season stats
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 28 Macheumoto Masaya (31) | 8 | 2 | - |
| FW | 88 Towa Yamane (27) | 8 | 1 | 2 |
| FW | 22 Ichimi Gajeunari (29) | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 99 Rukau (31) | 7 | 1 | - |
| FW | 40 Gawano Kota (23) | 7 | 1 | - |
| FW | 98 Popo (25) | 6 | 2 | - |
| MF | 8 Esaka Ataru (34) | 8 | 1 | - |
| MF | 27 Gimura Dakaya (28) | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 41 Eiji Miyamoto (28) | 8 | 0 | - |
| MF | 33 Gamiya Yuta (29) | 6 | 0 | - |
| MF | 51 Sirai Goseuke (32) | 6 | 0 | - |
| MF | 6 Hirosi Omori (24) | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| MF | 24 Hujita Ibuki (35) | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 43 Seujeuki Yositake (28) | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 48 Dasseuta Yugo (28) | 8 | 0 | - |
| DF | 2 Kotakudo (23) | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 18 Dagami Daichi (33) | 4 | 0 | - |
| DF | 26 Haruka Motoyama (27) | 2 | 0 | - |
| GK | 1 Renareuteu Mojeo (27) | 5 | 0 | - |
| GK | 52 Taro Hamada (26) | 3 | 0 | - |
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 11 Mareuko Tulrio (28) | 8 | 4 | - |
| FW | 9 Papaijio (27) Injured | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| FW | 17 Alex Negueba (25) | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 93 Shun Nagasawa (38) | 1 | 0 | - |
| MF | 7 Okugawa Masaya (31) | 8 | 1 | - |
| MF | 77 Haruki Arai | 7 | 0 | - |
| MF | 44 Kyo Sato (26) | 7 | 0 | - |
| MF | 6 Huang Pedeuro (27) | 7 | 0 | 3 |
| MF | 39 Hirato Toki (29) | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 16 Hiraoka Taiyo (24) | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 18 Temma Matsuda (31) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 99 Fuchi Honda (25) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 32 Saito Micheuki (27) | 3 | 0 | - |
| MF | 48 Ryuma Nakano (24) | 3 | 0 | - |
| MF | 88 Bareto (31) | 2 | 0 | - |
| MF | 8 Yonemoto Dakuji (36) | 2 | 0 | - |
| DF | 22 Seugai Hidehiro (28) | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 50 Yoshinori Suzuki (34) | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 34 Angrike (29) | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| DF | 2 Shinnosuke Fukuda (26) | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 40 Yusuke Ishida (24) | 2 | 0 | - |
| DF | 5 Dawahisasi (28) | 2 | 0 | - |
| GK | 1 Gakuji Ota (36) | 8 | 0 | - |
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Match Winner
| Outcome | Odds | Closing | Overseas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 1.86 | 1.79 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.56 | 3.59 |
| Away | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.62 |
Handicap (-1)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.15 | 3.13 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.36 |
| Away | 1.91 | 2.04 |
Home
1.69
48.0%
Draw
3.25
27.2%
Away
4.0
24.8%
Home
3.15
Draw
3.25
Away
1.91
Home
3.4
25.6%
Draw
3.35
26.0%
Away
1.8
48.4%
Over
1.78
Under
1.74
Over
1.78
49.4%
Under
1.74
50.6%
Odd
1.81
49.7%
Even
1.79
50.3%
Full game · Home handicap -1.0 · 09-19 (Sat) 19:00 KST · Korean domestic market. Purchase shares and historical samples describe this product.
| Type | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 3.15↓ | 3.25↓ | 1.91↑ |
| Initial | 3.29 | 3.52 | 1.84 |
| Opening | 3.40 | 3.35 | 1.80 |
| Overseas | 3.13↓ | 3.36↑ | 2.04↑ |
| Overseas − domestic | -0.02 | +0.11 | +0.13 |
| # | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.40 | 3.35 | 1.80 |
| 2 | 3.15 ↓ | 3.25 ↓ | 1.91 ↑ |
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