The forecast. The market. The evidence.
Analysis recorded · Sep 12 12:10 UTC
Data as of · 2026-09-24 23:06
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.


Analysis recorded · Sep 12 12:10 UTC
Data as of · 2026-09-24 23:06
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
AI Predicted
Draw
Prediction MissedCompare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
Draw
Confidence
61%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Key Analysis Points
Both teams finished just above the relegation zone in 2023-24 and struggled for form, especially Udinese with frequent draws.
Head-to-head history shows a strong tendency for low-scoring draws between these sides.
Udinese is defensively solid at home but struggles to win, while Cagliari is vulnerable away but can score against similar opposition.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
2 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick. Confidence is limited — treat this match as uncertain.
Prediction: Draw
Score: 1 - 1
Based on the latest available data, Udinese and Cagliari are closely matched, with both sides showing weaknesses that the other can exploit. Udinese's home record is marked by numerous draws, reflecting a strong defense but ineffective attack. Cagliari, while more potent offensively, has a poor away record and defensive issues. Head-to-head trends also suggest a draw is the statistically favored outcome. Given limited data from future seasons, this projection relies on persistent tactical and squad patterns.
Prediction: Draw
Score: 1 - 1
Based on comprehensive historical and statistical analysis, this Udinese vs Cagliari encounter is primed for a stalemate. The head-to-head record reveals 3 draws in their last 5 meetings, establishing a clear pattern of defensively-minded, low-scoring affairs. Both teams finished 2023-24 in the bottom half of Serie A with point totals (37 vs 36) indicating relegation-battle conservatism. Tactically, Udinese's defensive structure (only 1.39 goals conceded per game) contrasts sharply with Cagliari's vulnerability (1.79 per game), creating a predictable deadlock where Udinese's organized defense suffocates Cagliari's attack while Udinese's uninspiring offense (0.97 goals per game) fails to capitalize. Cagliari's particularly poor away form (W2 D4 L13 in 2023-24) further supports a defensive encounter. A 1-1 draw represents the most probable outcome given historical precedent and tactical compatibility, with high confidence reflecting consistent behavioral patterns between these clubs.
Prediction: Udinese Win
Score: 1 - 0
Udinese typically maintains a disciplined defensive structure at home, though their struggle to convert draws into wins remains a persistent tactical hurdle. Their ability to stifle lower-table opponents usually results in low-scoring affairs where a single goal can decide the outcome. Cagliari, while offensively more direct, has shown significant defensive vulnerabilities, particularly when playing away from home, conceding nearly two goals per game on average in recent historical cycles. Given that both teams often find themselves in the bottom half of the table, the stakes are usually high, leading to a cautious approach from both managers. Udinese's slight defensive superiority and home-field advantage give them the edge in a match likely to be decided by set-pieces or a late tactical breakthrough. Expect a physical battle in midfield with limited clear-cut chances for the visitors.
Max probability 40.0% · Gap 5.0%p
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Falling odds mean money moved onto that side.
Compared across 24 bookmakers.
Recorded · 2026-09-24 23:06
Udinese · 2025/2026 · 10th · 14W 8D 16L (GD -3)
Cagliari · 2025/2026 · 14th · 11W 10D 17L (GD -13)
Records as of this match, not current form.
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
5
Draws
4
Away Wins
1
Recent matches
Last meeting: 2026-05-09 (0-2)
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Strong upward trend
Strong upward trend
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Overall
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
At Home
Best: Unbeaten 1
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Overall
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
At Home
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Rank and record by season
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Serie A | #10 | 14W 8D 16L | -3 GD | 1.18 / 1.26 |
| 2024/2025 | Serie A | #12 | 12W 8D 18L | -15 GD | 1.08 / 1.47 |
| 2023/2024 | Serie A | #15 | 6W 19D 13L | -16 GD | 0.97 / 1.39 |
| 2022/2023 | Serie A | #12 | 11W 13D 14L | 46 pts -1 GD | 1.24 / 1.26 |
| 2021/2022 | Serie A | #12 | 11W 14D 13L | 47 pts +3 GD | 1.61 / 1.53 |
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Serie A | #14 | 11W 10D 17L | -13 GD | 1.05 / 1.39 |
| 2024/2025 | Serie A | #15 | 9W 9D 20L | -16 GD | 1.05 / 1.47 |
| 2023/2024 | Serie A | #16 | 8W 12D 18L | -26 GD | 1.11 / 1.79 |
| 2022/2023 | Serie B | #5 | 15W 15D 8L | 60 pts +16 GD | 1.32 / 0.89 |
| 2021/2022 | Serie A | #18 | 6W 12D 20L | 30 pts -34 GD | 0.89 / 1.79 |
Registered players with season stats
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 9 Keinan Davis (28) | 26 | 10 | 5 |
| FW | 15 Bakun Isupeu Bayo (29) | 13 | 0 | - |
| MF | 8 Jesper Karlstrom (31) | 30 | 1 | 4 |
| MF | 24 Jakub Piotrowski (29) | 26 | 1 | 2 |
| MF | 10 Janiol Nikolro Injured | 26 | 5 | 7 |
| MF | 32 Jurgen Ekkelenkamp (26) | 26 | 4 | 1 |
| MF | 14 Arthur Atta (23) | 24 | 2 | 3 |
| MF | 18 Adam Bukeusa (30) Calf injury | 19 | 2 | 2 |
| MF | 6 Oier Zarraga (27) | 18 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 38 Lennon Miller (20) | 17 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 28 Oumar Solet (26) | 27 | 3 | 1 |
| DF | 19 Kingseulri Ehijibu (31) | 25 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 13 Nicolo Bertola | 24 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 27 Christian Kabasele (35) | 23 | 3 | 4 |
| DF | 31 Keuriseutenseun Tomaseu | 20 | 2 | 2 |
| DF | 59 Janolri Alresandeuro Knee injury | 19 | 1 | 1 |
| DF | 11 Hassane Kamara (32) | 19 | 0 | 4 |
| DF | 33 Yoreudan Jemura (27) Muscle injury | 15 | 0 | 3 |
| GK | 40 Okoye Maduka | 22 | 0 | 1 1 |
| GK | 90 Saba Rajeuban | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| GK | 93 Daniele Padelli (41) | 2 | 0 | - |
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 94 Sebaseutiano Eseuposito (24) | 28 | 4 | 5 |
| FW | 29 Gennaro Borrelli (26) Thigh injury | 22 | 3 | 3 |
| FW | 9 Semih Kilicsoy (56) | 21 | 4 | 1 |
| FW | 30 Reonareudo Pabolreti (38) | 13 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 8 Michel Adopo (26) | 30 | 1 | 2 |
| MF | 33 Adam Obert | 27 | 0 | 10 1 |
| MF | 10 Jianruka Gaetano (26) | 25 | 2 | 4 |
| MF | 90 Maikeul Polrorunsyo (28) | 20 | 2 | 3 |
| MF | 4 Ruka Majitelri (31) | 17 | 2 | 3 |
| MF | 14 Alessandro Deiola (31) | 13 | 0 | 3 |
| MF | 17 Mattia Felici Knee injury | 11 | 2 | 3 |
| MF | 25 Ibeurahim Kakari (23) Inactive | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 18 Othniel Raterink (20) | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 2 Mareuko Palestra (21) | 29 | 1 | 3 |
| DF | 28 Gabeuriel Japa (27) | 25 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 26 Yeri Mina (32) | 19 | 1 | 5 1 |
| DF | 32 Pedeuro Hose | 16 | 0 | 4 |
| DF | 22 Albereuto Dosena (28) | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| DF | 99 Pabio Pisakane (40) | 0 | 0 | - |
| GK | 1 Kapeurielria | 30 | 0 | 2 |
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Match Winner
| Outcome | Odds | Closing | Overseas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 2.25 | 2.23 |
| Draw | 2.85 | 3.24 | 3.17 |
| Away | 3.0 | 3.32 | 3.66 |
Handicap (-1)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.35 | 4.66 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.67 |
| Away | 1.59 | 1.72 |
Home
2.15
42.0%
Draw
2.85
29.0%
Away
3.0
29.0%
Home
4.35
Draw
3.45
Away
1.59
Home
4.35
20.0%
Draw
3.45
25.2%
Away
1.59
54.8%
Over
1.91
Under
1.63
Over
1.97
44.7%
Under
1.59
55.3%
Odd
1.81
49.7%
Even
1.79
50.3%
Full game · Over/Under 2.5 · 09-19 (Sat) 22:00 KST · Korean domestic market. Purchase shares and historical samples describe this product.
| Type | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 1.63↑ | 1.91↓ |
| Initial | 1.59 | 1.97 |
| Opening | 1.59 | 1.97 |
| Overseas | 1.72↑ | 2.18↓ |
| Overseas − domestic | +0.09 | +0.27 |
| # | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.59 | 1.97 |
| 2 | 1.63 ↑ | 1.91 ↓ |
Recorded purchase snapshot. Amount and payout index retain source values; units are not supplied.
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