Based on recent historical data up to 2024, Arsenal's superior form, robust defense, and strong head-to-head record make them clear favorites against Brighton. Brighton's inconsistent home record and injury concerns further tilt the balance. While Brighton are capable of competitive performances, especially at home, Arsenal's attacking depth and tactical discipline should be enough to secure an away win.

Arsenal enter this fixture as strong favorites based on comprehensive evidence. Their away record is exceptional (12 wins, 5 draws, only 2 losses in 2023/24), and they average 2.05 goals per game while conceding just 0.89—elite metrics. Brighton, despite home advantage, sit mid-table with inconsistent form and mixed results against top-six opposition. Arsenal's recent form (undefeated in last 5, strong showings vs Tottenham 3-0, Chelsea 2-0) demonstrates clinical finishing and tactical discipline under Arteta. Historically, Arsenal have dominated this fixture (8 victories in 16 EPL meetings), and Brighton's creative outlet Solly March is unavailable due to ACL injury. Arsenal's pressing system and midfield control through Rice-Ødegaard should neutralize De Zerbi's possession game. Brighton pose a threat through Mitoma and João Pedro, but Arsenal's defensive structure and experience in high-pressure matches make them strong favorites. A 2-1 Arsenal victory represents a realistic scoreline reflecting Brighton's potential threat while acknowledging Arsenal's clear superiority.

Arsenal enters this fixture as the superior technical side, maintaining a high level of consistency in away matches. Their defensive solidity is the primary differentiator; with a goals-against average significantly lower than Brighton's, they are well-equipped to absorb pressure and hit on the counter. The Gunners' ability to control the tempo through sustained possession often neutralizes Brighton's creative outlets, forcing the Seagulls into defensive errors. Brighton remains a threat due to their tactical fluidity and the individual brilliance of players like Mitoma, but they have historically struggled to maintain clean sheets against clinical opposition. While the Amex atmosphere can be intimidating, Arsenal's recent head-to-head dominance (winning the last two meetings by an aggregate of 5-0) suggests a psychological advantage. Expect a competitive game, but Arsenal's superior xG and depth should see them secure all three points in a narrow victory.