Analysis recorded · Sep 12 13:10 UTC
Data as of · 2026-09-24 23:06
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
AI Predicted
Newcastle Win
Prediction Correct!Compare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
Newcastle Win
Confidence
74%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Key Analysis Points
Newcastle's recent form (as of 2024) is strong, especially at home, with a high goal-scoring record.
Head-to-head history favors Newcastle, and Hull has not beaten Newcastle in regular time since 2016.
Newcastle's squad quality and depth, even with possible Carabao Cup rotation, should surpass Hull's Championship-level roster.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick. Confidence is limited — treat this match as uncertain.
Prediction: Newcastle Win
Score: 2 - 1
Based on the latest available data until June 2024, Newcastle United are clearly the stronger side, with a better record both in recent matches and historically against Hull City. Their attacking style and home advantage at St. James' Park further tip the scales. While Hull can be competitive, especially if Newcastle rotates their squad, the gulf in squad quality and Newcastle's cup ambitions make them favorites.
Prediction: Newcastle Win
Score: 2 - 1
Newcastle United enter as clear favorites given their Premier League status, strong home record at St. James' Park, and commanding historical record against Hull City (10 wins, 4 losses). Hull City, though competitive in their league, face a significant step up. The Carabao Cup knockout format typically draws Newcastle's stronger XI, while Hull may prioritize league commitments. However, Hull's demonstrated ability to score (68 goals in 2023-24) and compete means Newcastle cannot afford complacency. A narrow victory (2-1) reflects Newcastle's dominance tempered by Hull's competitive quality and cup unpredictability.
Prediction: Newcastle Win
Score: 3 - 0
Newcastle United enters this fixture as heavy favorites, benefiting from a squad optimized for Premier League and European competition. Even with potential rotation—common in the early rounds of the Carabao Cup—Newcastle's fringe players often possess the quality of starters at the Championship level. Their high-intensity pressing style is expected to disrupt Hull City's build-up play, forcing turnovers in dangerous areas. Hull City will likely prioritize defensive solidity and look for opportunities on the counter-attack, but maintaining that discipline for 90 minutes against top-tier opposition is a difficult task. Historically, the gap between the top half of the Premier League and the Championship has widened, making a cupset unlikely in this specific matchup. Hull's best chance lies in Newcastle underestimating the tie and fielding an overly experimental lineup, but the home crowd and the prestige of the tournament usually ensure a professional performance from the Magpies.
Max probability 70.0% · Gap 52.5%p
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Compared across 24 bookmakers.
Recorded · 2026-09-24 23:06
Newcastle · 2025/2026 · 12th · 14W 7D 17L (GD -2)
Hull · 2025/2026 · 6th · 21W 10D 15L (GD +4)
Records as of this match, not current form.
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
5
Home Wins
2
Draws
2
Away Wins
1
Recent matches
Last meeting: 2016-11-30 (2-1)
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Strong upward trend
Strong upward trend
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Overall
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 3
At Home
Best: Unbeaten 2
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Overall
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 3
At Home
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Rank and record by season
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Premier League | #12 | 14W 7D 17L | -2 GD | 1.39 / 1.45 |
| 2024/2025 | Premier League | #5 | 20W 6D 12L | +21 GD | 1.79 / 1.24 |
| 2023/2024 | Premier League | #7 | 18W 6D 14L | +23 GD | 2.24 / 1.63 |
| 2022/2023 | Premier League | #4 | 19W 14D 5L | 71 pts +35 GD | 1.79 / 0.87 |
| 2021/2022 | Premier League | #11 | 13W 10D 15L | 49 pts -18 GD | 1.16 / 1.63 |
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | EFL Championship | #6 | 21W 10D 15L | +4 GD | 1.52 / 1.43 |
| 2024/2025 | EFL Championship | #21 | 12W 13D 21L | -10 GD | 0.96 / 1.17 |
| 2023/2024 | EFL Championship | #7 | 19W 13D 14L | +8 GD | 1.48 / 1.3 |
| 2022/2023 | EFL Championship | #15 | 14W 16D 16L | 58 pts -10 GD | 1.11 / 1.33 |
| 2021/2022 | EFL Championship | #19 | 14W 9D 23L | 51 pts -13 GD | 0.89 / 1.17 |
Registered players with season stats
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 27 Nik Ultemaideu (24) | 27 | 7 | - |
| FW | 20 Aenseoni Elrangga (24) | 27 | 0 | - |
| FW | 23 Jeikop Meopi (31) | 26 | 3 | 1 |
| FW | 10 Aenseoni Godeun (25) | 25 | 6 | 3 1 |
| FW | 7 Joelrington (30) | 24 | 2 | 9 |
| FW | 18 William Osula (23) | 17 | 2 | - |
| FW | 9 Yoan Wisa (30) | 13 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 11 Habi Banseu (29) | 30 | 5 | 1 |
| MF | 8 Sandeuro Tonalri (26) | 29 | 0 | 3 |
| MF | 3 Ruiseu Hol (22) | 24 | 1 | 4 |
| MF | 39 Beuruno (29) Muscle injury | 23 | 9 | 5 |
| MF | 41 Jeikop Raemji (25) | 21 | 2 | 5 1 |
| MF | 28 Josep Wilrok (27) | 20 | 0 | 3 |
| MF | 67 Ruiseu Miley (20) Knee injury | 19 | 1 | - |
| DF | 12 Malrik Tiau (25) | 28 | 4 | 3 |
| DF | 33 Daen Beon (34) | 23 | 0 | 9 1 |
| DF | 2 Kieoreon Teuripieo (36) | 18 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 4 Seuben Boteuman (26) Face Injury27.04.2026 | 18 | 1 | 1 |
| DF | 5 Pabian Syareu (35) Ankle injury | 16 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 21 Ribeuramento Balrentino | 15 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 17 Emil Keurapeuteu (32) Knee injury | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 37 Alex Murphy (56) | 1 | 0 | - |
| GK | 1 Nik Pope (34) | 22 | 0 | 1 |
| GK | 32 Aron Ramseudeil (28) | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 22 Kail Josep (25) | 37 | 8 | 6 |
| FW | 21 Gelhareuteu Jo | 32 | 13 | 4 |
| FW | 9 Olribeo Maekbeoni (30) | 30 | 13 | 7 |
| FW | 7 Riam Milreo (27) | 26 | 2 | 3 |
| FW | 10 Belrumi Mohamedeu | 15 | 1 | 2 |
| FW | 13 Yu Hirakawa (25) Knee injury | 5 | 0 | - |
| MF | 27 Regan Seulraeteo (27) Ankle injury | 39 | 2 | 7 |
| MF | 20 Amireu Hajiametobichi (29) | 34 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 3 Jailseu Raieon Hamstring injury | 28 | 0 | 6 |
| MF | 25 Maet Keurukseu (32) | 24 | 4 | 12 |
| MF | 5 Jon Runseuteureom (32) | 23 | 1 | 8 |
| MF | 11 Babahide Dabideu Akintolra (30) Inactive | 20 | 1 | 4 |
| MF | 24 Dareuko Gyabi (22) Groin injury | 20 | 2 | - |
| MF | 36 Louie Koumas (21) | 11 | 3 | - |
| MF | 26 Kieoreon Dowel (29) | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 37 Paedi Maekneeo (31) | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 33 Tobi Collyer (22) | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 15 Jon Igeon (34) | 35 | 2 | 7 |
| DF | 4 Chalri Hyujeu (23) | 35 | 1 | 5 1 |
| DF | 2 Rui Koil (31) | 32 | 0 | 9 |
| DF | 18 Deurame Kodi | 19 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 6 Semi Ajai (33) | 16 | 1 | - |
| DF | 23 Peimu Akin Calf injury | 15 | 1 | 1 |
| DF | 16 Jeikop Maeti Knee injury | 5 | 0 | - |
| GK | 1 Iboreu Pandureu (26) | 39 | 0 | 6 |
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Match Winner
| Outcome | Odds | Closing | Overseas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 1.6 | 1.61 |
| Draw | 3.8 | 4.33 | 4.39 |
| Away | 4.55 | 5.1 | 5.34 |
Handicap (-1)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.55 | 2.55 |
| Draw | 3.4 | 3.53 |
| Away | 2.22 | 2.4 |
Handicap (-2)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.75 | 4.84 |
| Draw | 4.5 | 4.59 |
| Away | 1.42 | 1.49 |
Handicap (-3.5)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.84 | 10.08 |
| Draw | - | - |
| Away | 1.01 | 1.05 |
Home
1.56
57.0%
Draw
3.8
23.4%
Away
4.55
19.6%
Home
2.55
Draw
3.4
Away
2.22
Home
4.75
Draw
4.5
Away
1.42
Home
6.84
Away
1.01
Home
2.55
34.5%
Draw
3.4
25.9%
Away
2.22
39.6%
Home
4.75
18.5%
Draw
4.5
19.5%
Away
1.42
61.9%
Home
6.84
12.9%
Away
1.01
87.1%
Over
1.53
Under
2.13
Over
1.53
58.2%
Under
2.13
41.8%
Odd
1.8
50.0%
Even
1.8
50.0%
Full game · Over/Under 2.5 · 09-19 (Sat) 23:00 KST · Korean domestic market. Purchase shares and historical samples describe this product.
| Type | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 2.13 | 1.53 |
| Initial | 2.13 | 1.53 |
| Opening | 2.13 | 1.53 |
| Overseas | 2.32↑ | 1.64↑ |
| Overseas − domestic | +0.19 | +0.11 |
| # | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.13 | 1.53 |
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