The forecast. The market. The evidence.
Analysis recorded · Sep 12 23:20 UTC
Data as of · 2026-09-24 23:06
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.

Analysis recorded · Sep 12 23:20 UTC
Data as of · 2026-09-24 23:06
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
AI Predicted
Nottingham Win
Prediction MissedCompare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
Nottingham Win
Confidence
64%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Key Analysis Points
Nottingham Forest have a stronger recent head-to-head record against Coventry.
Coventry finished the 2023-24 season in poor form, winless in their last five games.
Forest's home advantage and higher-level experience in the Premier League provide an edge.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Prediction: Nottingham Win
Score: 2 - 1
Nottingham Forest, despite a difficult Premier League campaign, have shown resilience at home and often edge tight games against Coventry. The head-to-head history slightly favors Forest, and their core squad remains strong, with key creative and attacking players available. Coventry struggled at the end of the 2023-24 Championship season and have defensive vulnerabilities. However, the analysis is based on data from two years prior, so confidence is moderate. Forest’s home advantage and top-flight experience make them slight favorites, but Coventry's tactical organization could keep the match close.
Prediction: Nottingham Win
Score: 2 - 1
Nottingham Forest are favored at home despite the speculative nature of 2026-27 data. While Coventry showed Championship consistency with good defensive discipline (1.18 conceded/game), their late-season collapse (1 point in final 5 games) undermines confidence. Forest's home strength and likely squad quality advantage point to a narrow victory. Coventry's away record (7W-8D-8L) shows inconsistency, making an away comeback unlikely. Score prediction: 2-1 Forest reflects both teams' attacking capability but Forest's defensive solidity and home control.
Prediction: Nottingham Win
Score: 2 - 1
Nottingham Forest enters this fixture as the favorites, largely due to their recent experience at the Premier League level and the technical superiority of their core squad. Historically, Forest has held the edge in head-to-head encounters, winning three of the last five meetings. Their ability to transition quickly through Morgan Gibbs-White and utilize the pace of their wingers makes them a difficult prospect for a Coventry side that has struggled for clean sheets in recent seasons. Coventry City, under the long-term guidance of Mark Robins, remains a tactically disciplined unit capable of causing upsets through effective transitions and the goal-scoring instincts of Ellis Simms. However, their winless streak at the end of the previous campaign suggests a struggle with consistency against top-tier opposition. At the City Ground, Forest's intensity and superior depth should be enough to secure a narrow victory in what is expected to be a closely contested midlands battle.
Max probability 49.5% · Gap 21.5%p
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Compared across 24 bookmakers.
Recorded · 2026-09-24 23:06
Nottingham · 2025/2026 · 16th · 11W 11D 16L (GD -3)
Coventry · 2025/2026 · 1st · 28W 11D 7L (GD +52)
Records as of this match, not current form.
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
4
Home Wins
3
Draws
0
Away Wins
1
Recent matches
Last meeting: 2022-04-07 (2-0)
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Sharp decline
Strong upward trend
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Overall
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 3
At Home
Best: Unbeaten 1
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
Overall
At Home
Away
Rank and record by season
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Premier League | #16 | 11W 11D 16L | -3 GD | 1.26 / 1.34 |
| 2024/2025 | Premier League | #7 | 19W 8D 11L | +12 GD | 1.53 / 1.21 |
| 2023/2024 | Premier League | #17 | 9W 9D 20L | -18 GD | 1.29 / 1.76 |
| 2022/2023 | Premier League | #16 | 9W 11D 18L | 38 pts -30 GD | 1.0 / 1.79 |
| 2021/2022 | EFL Championship | #4 | 23W 11D 12L | 80 pts +33 GD | 1.59 / 0.87 |
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | EFL Championship | #1 | 28W 11D 7L | +52 GD | 2.11 / 0.98 |
| 2024/2025 | EFL Championship | #5 | 20W 9D 17L | +6 GD | 1.39 / 1.26 |
| 2023/2024 | EFL Championship | #9 | 17W 13D 16L | +11 GD | 1.52 / 1.28 |
| 2022/2023 | EFL Championship | #5 | 18W 16D 12L | 70 pts +12 GD | 1.26 / 1.0 |
| 2021/2022 | EFL Championship | #12 | 17W 13D 16L | 64 pts +1 GD | 1.3 / 1.28 |
Registered players with season stats
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 19 Igoreuda Keurujeu (25) | 30 | 3 | - |
| FW | 14 Daen Eundoye (26) | 23 | 1 | 1 |
| FW | 9 Aonii Taio (29) Inactive | 12 | 2 | 1 |
| FW | 29 Dilrein Bakeuwa (24) | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 9 Keuriseu Udeu (35) Poor condition | 8 | 2 | - |
| FW | 20 Ruka Rorenjo | 3 | 1 | - |
| MF | 8 Elrieot Andereuson (24) | 31 | 2 | 6 |
| MF | 10 Mogeon Gipseu-hwaiteu (26) | 31 | 9 | 1 |
| MF | 7 Kalreom Heodeuseun-odoi (26) | 29 | 3 | - |
| MF | 21 Omari Heochinseun (23) | 24 | 1 | - |
| MF | 6 Ibeurahim Sanggare (29) | 23 | 2 | 5 |
| MF | 16 Nikolraseu Dominggeseu (28) | 20 | 1 | 2 |
| MF | 22 Raieon Yateseu (29) | 16 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 24 Jeimseu Maekati (24) | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 31 Nikolra Milrenkobichi (29) | 31 | 0 | 6 |
| DF | 3 Neko Wilrieomseu (25) | 30 | 1 | 5 1 |
| DF | 5 Muriyo (24) | 23 | 1 | 4 |
| DF | 4 Morato (25) | 15 | 0 | 4 |
| DF | 34 Olra Aina (30) | 15 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 23 Jair Paula da Cunha Filho (21) Foot injury | 3 | 0 | - |
| DF | 25 Ruka Netcheu (23) Inactive | 2 | 0 | - |
| DF | 44 Jaek Abbott (20) | 2 | 0 | - |
| GK | 26 Macheu Selseu (34) | 24 | 0 | 2 |
| GK | 13 Jon (30) Knee injury | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| GK | 27 Seutepan Oreutega (34) | 3 | 0 | - |
| GK | 18 Geon Aenggeoseu | 1 | 0 | - |
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 10 Epeuron Meiseunkeulrakeu (27) | 35 | 7 | 4 |
| FW | 11 Haji Raiteu (28) | 33 | 16 | 4 |
| FW | 23 Tomaseu Asante Beuraendeun (28) | 27 | 12 | 1 |
| FW | 24 Mareukelro Yaheunoa | 3 | 0 | - |
| MF | 6 Matt Grimes (31) | 39 | 2 | 4 |
| MF | 9 Ellis Simms (25) | 36 | 10 | 1 |
| MF | 7 Tatsuhiro Sakamoto (31) | 33 | 7 | 4 |
| MF | 29 Biktoreu Topeu (27) | 32 | 8 | 5 |
| MF | 5 Jack Rudoni (26) | 25 | 5 | - |
| MF | 8 Jeimi Alren (31) | 21 | 1 | - |
| MF | 14 Romain Esse (56) | 11 | 2 | 2 |
| MF | 16 Ogochukuoneka (28) | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 27 Pan Ebaikeu Milran | 37 | 0 | 8 |
| DF | 3 Jay Dasilva (28) | 36 | 0 | 6 1 |
| DF | 15 Liam Kitching (27) | 32 | 2 | 7 |
| DF | 4 Bobby Thomas (25) | 29 | 2 | 6 1 |
| DF | 28 Josi Ekeulseu (26) | 29 | 4 | 5 |
| DF | 20 Keseulreo Kein | 20 | 1 | 1 |
| DF | 26 Rukeu Ulpendeon (28) | 16 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 22 Joel Latibeaudiere (26) | 11 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 21 Jeikeu Bideuwel (33) | 9 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 33 Miguel Brau (25) Muscle injury | 8 | 0 | - |
| GK | 19 Reosiwoseu Kal | 39 | 0 | 2 |
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The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
Match Winner
| Outcome | Odds | Closing | Overseas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.59 | 1.62 | 1.65 |
| Draw | 3.6 | 4.06 | 3.92 |
| Away | 4.6 | 5.35 | 5.73 |
Handicap (-1)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 2.74 |
| Draw | 3.3 | 3.34 |
| Away | 2.19 | 2.33 |
Handicap (-2)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.2 | 5.35 |
| Draw | 4.55 | 5.09 |
| Away | 1.38 | 1.45 |
Home
1.59
56.0%
Draw
3.6
24.7%
Away
4.6
19.3%
Home
2.65
Draw
3.3
Away
2.19
Home
5.2
Draw
4.55
Away
1.38
Home
2.65
33.2%
Draw
3.3
26.6%
Away
2.19
40.2%
Home
5.2
16.9%
Draw
4.55
19.3%
Away
1.38
63.8%
Over
1.65
Under
1.93
Over
1.65
53.9%
Under
1.93
46.1%
Odd
1.81
49.7%
Even
1.79
50.3%
Full game · Home handicap -2.0 · 09-20 (Sun) 01:30 KST · Korean domestic market. Purchase shares and historical samples describe this product.
| Type | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 5.20 | 4.55 | 1.38 |
| Initial | 6.08 | 4.87 | 1.36 |
| Opening | 5.20 | 4.55 | 1.38 |
| Overseas | 5.35↓ | 5.09↑ | 1.45↑ |
| Overseas − domestic | +0.15 | +0.54 | +0.07 |
| # | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5.20 | 4.55 | 1.38 |
Recorded purchase snapshot. Amount and payout index retain source values; units are not supplied.
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