The forecast. The market. The evidence.
Analysis recorded · Sep 17 10:00 UTC
Data as of · 2026-09-26 16:04
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.


Analysis recorded · Sep 17 10:00 UTC
Data as of · 2026-09-26 16:04
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
AI Predicted
South Korea Win
Prediction Correct!Compare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
South Korea Win
Confidence
70%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Key Analysis Points
South Korea is in excellent form, unbeaten in their last 4 and scoring freely.
Head-to-head favors South Korea, with 2 clean-sheet wins from previous meetings.
Ecuador struggles away from home and has a less consistent attack against strong defenses.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick. Confidence is limited — treat this match as uncertain.
Prediction: South Korea Win
Score: 2 - 1
South Korea enters this match with strong momentum, a potent attack, and historical superiority over Ecuador. Their defensive solidity and home advantage further tilt the balance in their favor. Ecuador, while talented and youthful, has not shown consistent results against top opposition and is less reliable away from home, especially outside the altitude advantage of Quito. Both teams are expected to field strong lineups, but South Korea's recent results and tactical evolution provide a clear edge.
Prediction: South Korea Win
Score: 2 - 0
South Korea enters this World Cup group-stage match as clear favorites based on dominant qualifying form and superior recent performance metrics. Having won 5 of their last 6 qualifiers with an exceptional +17 goal differential and conceding just 1 goal, South Korea's attacking potency under new management is evident. Ecuador, while showing improvement under Félix Sánchez Bas with young talents like Kendry Páez emerging, remains inconsistent and has struggled against top-tier opposition (losses to Argentina and Italy). The perfect 2-0 head-to-head advantage strongly favors South Korea. Ecuador's midfield strength with Moisés Caicedo provides some defensive resistance, but South Korea's pace on the flanks through fullback support and the offensive prowess of Son Heung-min should prove decisive. Ecuador's altitude advantage is negated in a neutral or away setting.
Prediction: South Korea Win
Score: 2 - 1
South Korea enters this fixture with a distinct tactical advantage in the final third. The creative synergy between Lee Kang-in and Son Heung-min remains one of the most potent in international football, capable of breaking down disciplined defensive blocks through rapid transitions. Defensively, the presence of Kim Min-jae provides the necessary recovery speed and aerial dominance to neutralize Ecuador’s physical approach and direct counter-attacking threats. Ecuador relies heavily on the midfield engine of Moisés Caicedo and the creative spark of young prodigy Kendry Páez. While they possess superior physicality and high-pressing capabilities, their historical struggle to convert chances against organized, top-tier defenses remains a limiting factor. South Korea’s perfect historical record against Ecuador, including two clean sheets, suggests a psychological edge. Expect a closely contested match where South Korea’s superior technical finishing and defensive leadership ultimately tip the scales.
Max probability 50.0% · Gap 22.5%p
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Falling odds mean money moved onto that side.
Compared across 24 bookmakers.
Recorded · 2026-09-26 16:04
Records as of this match, not current form.
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
1
Home Wins
1
Draws
0
Away Wins
0
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Slight decline
Slight improvement
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
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All available bet types with odds
The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
Match Winner
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 2.28 |
| Draw | 3.2 | 3.36 |
| Away | 3.15 | 3.14 |
Handicap (-1)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.95 | 4.71 |
| Draw | 3.5 | 3.81 |
| Away | 1.64 | 1.6 |
Handicap (-2)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.9 | 10.43 |
| Draw | 5.5 | 6.37 |
| Away | 1.19 | 1.19 |
Match Winner
| Outcome | Odds | Closing | Overseas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.28 |
| Draw | 1.94 | 3.11 | 3.36 |
| Away | 3.45 | 2.97 | 3.14 |
Handicap (-1)
| Outcome | Odds | Overseas |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.4 | 2.28 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.36 |
| Away | 1.3 | 3.14 |
Home
1.93
Draw
3.2
Away
3.15
Home
2.9
36.0%
Draw
1.94
Away
3.45
33.5%
Home
3.95
Draw
3.5
Away
1.64
Home
7.9
Draw
5.5
Away
1.19
Home
9.4
Draw
3.65
Away
1.3
Home
5.4
16.1%
Draw
3.7
23.5%
Away
1.44
60.4%
Home
16.0
5.4%
Draw
7.4
11.8%
Away
1.05
82.8%
Over
1.84
Under
1.69
Over
2.92
Under
1.26
Over
2.19
40.2%
Under
1.47
59.8%
Over
3.09
28.5%
Under
1.23
71.5%
Odd
1.82
49.5%
Even
1.78
50.5%
1st half · Home handicap -1.0 · 09-24 (Thu) 20:00 KST · Korean domestic market. Purchase shares and historical samples describe this product.
| Type | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 9.40↓ | 3.65↓ | 1.30↑ |
| Initial | 11.50 | 4.10 | 1.22 |
| Opening | 11.50 | 4.10 | 1.22 |
| Overseas | 2.28↓ | 3.36↑ | 3.14↑ |
| Overseas − domestic | -7.12 | -0.29 | +1.84 |
| # | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11.50 | 4.10 | 1.22 |
| 2 | 9.70 ↓ | 3.85 ↓ | 1.27 ↑ |
| 3 | 9.40 ↓ | 3.65 ↓ | 1.30 ↑ |
Recorded purchase snapshot. Amount and payout index retain source values; units are not supplied.
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