Analysis recorded · Sep 18 07:30 UTC
Data as of · 2026-09-26 16:04
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
Compare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
SSG Landers Win
Confidence
65%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
6 - 4
Key Analysis Points
| Outcome | Odds | Market Prob | AI Prob | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG Landers Win | 2.32 | 40.8% | 64.9% | +50.6% |
| Samsung Lions Win | 1.6 | 59.2% | 35.1% | -43.8% |
📊 High Odds Investment: Value bets with odds ≥ 2.0 have lower hit rates but positive expected returns over time. The math works when you bet consistently — even hitting 1 out of 3 at 4.0x odds yields profit. Never bet more than Kelly suggests. Patience and bankroll discipline are key.
SSG Landers have a better overall record and run differential compared to Samsung Lions.
Recent head-to-head history favors SSG Landers, especially at home.
SSG Landers show stronger key player performances and fewer errors per game.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Prediction: SSG Landers Win
Score: 6 - 4
Based on data from June 2024, SSG Landers have consistently outperformed Samsung Lions in most statistical categories, including runs per game, home record, and pitching ERA. Their superior head-to-head record and stronger home advantage further increase their likelihood of winning. While both teams show some inconsistency, SSG's offensive depth and stable lineup give them a clear edge. Confidence is moderate due to data being over a year old, so updating closer to match day is recommended.
Prediction: SSG Landers Win
Score: 5 - 3
Based on available 2024 data, SSG Landers (home) are favored over Samsung Lions (away). SSG holds a clear edge in head-to-head matchups (14-9 record since 2022), offensive production (5.21 vs 4.75 runs/game), and team ERA (4.09 vs 4.33). More importantly, SSG's home record (20-14) contrasts with Samsung's poor away record (16-18), creating a significant venue advantage. While Samsung showed offensive flashes (Pirela, Kim Ji-chan), SSG's veteran leadership (Choi Jeong, Heredia) and ace pitcher Kim Kwang-hyun provide consistent reliability. Historical patterns suggest SSG typically wins tight contests, making a 5-3 scoreline reasonable for their defensive-minded, pitching-focused approach.
Prediction: SSG Landers Win
Score: 6 - 4
SSG Landers enter this matchup as the statistically superior side, holding a significant advantage in run differential and overall win percentage. Their offensive depth, led by veteran slugger Choi Jeong and Guillermo Heredia, consistently produces over 5 runs per game, outperforming a Samsung Lions lineup that often struggles with run support. Furthermore, SSG's pitching staff maintains a healthier team ERA (4.09) compared to Samsung's (4.33), providing a more stable foundation for late-inning management. Samsung's road form remains a concern, as they have historically struggled to maintain consistency away from home. While Samsung's top-tier starters like Won Tae-in can keep games competitive, the SSG bullpen has shown better reliability in high-leverage situations. Given SSG's strong home record at Incheon and their historical head-to-head edge, they are the clear favorites to control the tempo and secure the win.
Max probability 64.9% · Gap 29.8%p
Strategy: Clear favorite detected. Consider the main market or safe derivative options below for steady compound returns.
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Compared across 22 bookmakers.
Recorded · 2026-09-26 16:04
SSG Landers · 2025 · 3rd · 75W 4D 65L (RD +33)
Samsung Lions · 2025 · 4th · 74W 2D 68L (RD +128)
Records as of this match, not current form.
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
3
Draws
0
Away Wins
7
Recent matches
Last meeting: 2026-08-20 (4-6)
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Baseball · Season performance
SSG Landers
127 games played
Samsung Lions
126 games played
Scoring and differential: higher is better. Runs allowed: lower is better. Differential = scored minus allowed per game.
— means the statistic is unavailable. These are season figures, not a prediction.
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Strong upward trend
Slight decline
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
Rank and record by season
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / RD | Avg runs scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | KBO | #3 | 75W 4D 65L | 53.6% +33 RD | 4.23 / 4.0 |
| 2024 | KBO | #6 | 72W 2D 71L | 50.3% -59 RD | 5.23 / 5.64 |
| 2023 | KBO | #3 | 76W 3D 65L | 53.8% -40 RD | 4.57 / 4.85 |
| 2022 | KBO | #1 | 88W 4D 52L | 62.5% +98 RD | 5.0 / 4.32 |
| 2021 | KBO | #6 | 66W 14D 64L | 50.7% +14 RD | 5.24 / 5.15 |
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / RD | Avg runs scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | KBO | #4 | 74W 2D 68L | 52.1% +128 RD | 5.38 / 4.49 |
| 2024 | KBO | #2 | 78W 2D 64L | 54.9% +51 RD | 5.35 / 4.99 |
| 2023 | KBO | #8 | 61W 1D 82L | 42.7% -92 RD | 4.42 / 5.06 |
| 2022 | KBO | #7 | 66W 2D 76L | 46.5% -32 RD | 4.6 / 4.83 |
| 2021 | KBO | #2 | 76W 9D 59L | 55.9% +54 RD | 4.94 / 4.57 |
Compare the same period, market and line. Open a market for its full source detail.
All available bet types with odds
The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
Home
2.32
Closing
Away
1.6
Closing
Home
2.19
Away
1.47
Win
3.25
Within 1
3.6
Loss
1.77
Home
2.35
40.2%
Draw
7.2
Away
1.71
59.8%
Full game · Over/Under 11.5 · 09-25 (Fri) 17:00 KST · Korean domestic market. Purchase shares and historical samples describe this product.
| Type | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 1.65 | 1.89 |
| Initial | 1.65 | 1.89 |
| Opening | 1.65 | 1.89 |
| Overseas | 1.73↓ | 2.09↑ |
| Overseas − domestic | +0.08 | +0.20 |
| # | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.65 | 1.89 |
No collected records in this section.
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