Analysis recorded · Sep 20 00:00 UTC
Data as of · 2026-09-26 15:06
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
Compare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
Milwaukee Brewers Win
Confidence
69%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
5 - 3
Key Analysis Points
| Outcome | Odds | Market Prob | AI Prob | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers Win | 1.52 | 62.2% | 64.1% | -2.6% |
| St. Louis Cardinals Win | 2.5 | 37.8% | 35.9% | -10.3% |
Milwaukee Brewers have a stronger overall record and better run differential as of June 2024.
Brewers hold a recent head-to-head advantage over the Cardinals, both in the current and prior seasons.
The Cardinals have struggled with inconsistent offense and a less reliable pitching staff, especially after injuries.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers Win
Score: 5 - 3
Based on data up to June 2024, the Brewers are clearly outperforming the Cardinals in both pitching and offense, and have shown consistency at home. The Cardinals’ pitching depth and offensive production have been inconsistent, and their recent head-to-head performance against the Brewers is lacking. While future developments (trades, injuries) could impact this projection by September 2026, current trends and rosters favor Milwaukee at home.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers Win
Score: 4 - 2
Based on available data through June 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers are clear favorites in this late September matchup. The Brewers hold a significant advantage in divisional standings (+8 GB), positive run differential (+35 vs Cardinals -25), and have demonstrated superior pitching and offensive consistency. Their 3-of-5 recent wins and strong 20-10 home record contrast sharply with the Cardinals' .475 win percentage and struggles both at home and on the road. Historically, the Brewers have dominated this rivalry in 2023-2024, winning 8 of 13 matchups and leading the current season series 4-2. While the Cardinals boast veteran talent (Goldschmidt, Arenado), their pitching depth concerns and inconsistent performance make them underdogs. The prediction favors a Brewers home victory, though the Cardinals' star power could produce a competitive game.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers Win
Score: 5 - 3
Their pitching rotation, anchored by high-strikeout starters and a reliable bullpen, gives them a significant advantage over a St. Louis Cardinals staff that has struggled with depth and a high WHIP. Milwaukee's offensive efficiency, led by the resurgence of Christian Yelich and the breakout of William Contreras, provides a steady run-scoring floor that the Cardinals' streaky lineup often fails to match. Historically, the Brewers have dominated the NL Central divisional matchups in recent years, demonstrating a tactical edge in late-season series. The Cardinals' reliance on aging veteran stars like Goldschmidt and Arenado introduces more volatility compared to the Brewers' younger, more athletic roster. Given the home-field advantage and the statistical gap in run differential, the Brewers are favored to win a typical mid-to-high scoring contest.
Max probability 64.1% · Gap 28.2%p
Strategy: Clear favorite detected. Consider the main market or safe derivative options below for steady compound returns.
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Compared across 17 bookmakers.
Recorded · 2026-09-26 15:06
Milwaukee Brewers · 2025 · 1st · 97W 65L (RD +172)
St. Louis Cardinals · 2025 · 11th · 78W 84L (RD -65)
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
8
Draws
0
Away Wins
2
Recent matches
Last meeting: 2026-07-10 (4-8)
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Baseball · Season performance
Milwaukee Brewers
150 games played
St. Louis Cardinals
151 games played
Scoring and differential: higher is better. Runs allowed: lower is better. Differential = scored minus allowed per game.
— means the statistic is unavailable. These are season figures, not a prediction.
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Strong upward trend
Sharp decline
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
Rank and record by season
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / RD | Avg runs scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | MLB | #1 | 97W 65L | 59.9% +172 RD | 4.98 / 3.91 |
| 2024 | MLB | #3 | 93W 69L | 57.4% +136 RD | 4.8 / 3.96 |
| 2023 | MLB NL Central | #3 | 92W 70L | 56.8% +81 RD | 4.49 / 3.99 |
| 2022 | MLB NL Central | #7 | 86W 76L | 53.1% +37 RD | 4.48 / 4.25 |
| 2021 | MLB NL Central | #3 | 95W 67L | 58.6% +115 RD | 4.56 / 3.85 |
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / RD | Avg runs scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | MLB | #11 | 78W 84L | 48.1% -65 RD | 4.25 / 4.65 |
| 2024 | MLB | #9 | 83W 79L | 51.2% -47 RD | 4.15 / 4.44 |
| 2023 | MLB NL Central | #14 | 71W 91L | 43.8% -110 RD | 4.44 / 5.12 |
| 2022 | MLB NL Central | #4 | 93W 69L | 57.4% +135 RD | 4.77 / 3.93 |
| 2021 | MLB NL Central | #4 | 90W 72L | 55.6% +34 RD | 4.36 / 4.15 |
Compare the same period, market and line. Open a market for its full source detail.
All available bet types with odds
The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
Home
1.52
Closing
61.9%
Away
2.5
Closing
38.1%
Home
1.42
Away
2.31
Win
1.91
61.9%
Within 1
3.35
Loss
3.05
38.1%
Full game · Over/Under 7.5 · 09-27 (Sun) 08:10 KST · Korean domestic market. Purchase shares and historical samples describe this product.
| Type | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 1.81 | 1.71 |
| Initial | 1.81 | 1.71 |
| Opening | 1.81 | 1.71 |
| Overseas | 1.91↓ | 1.92↑ |
| Overseas − domestic | +0.10 | +0.21 |
| # | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.81 | 1.71 |
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