Analysis recorded · Sep 20 01:00 UTC
The data-based estimate supports this direction.
Data as of · 2026-09-26 16:02
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
Compare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
Austin FC Win
Confidence
52%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Key Analysis Points
| Outcome | Odds | Market Prob | AI Prob | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin FC Win | 2.18 | 39.9% | 52.5% | +14.5% |
| Draw | 3.45 | 25.2% | 27.5% | -5.1% |
| San Diego FC Win | 2.5 | 34.8% | 20.0% | -50.0% |
📊 High Odds Investment: Value bets with odds ≥ 2.0 have lower hit rates but positive expected returns over time. The math works when you bet consistently — even hitting 1 out of 3 at 4.0x odds yields profit. Never bet more than Kelly suggests. Patience and bankroll discipline are key.
Austin FC has established MLS experience and a stable core, especially at home.
San Diego FC will still be in the early phase of development with unknown roster and cohesion.
Austin FC's defensive solidity and home record give them a clear edge.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Prediction: Austin FC Win
Score: 2 - 0
Given San Diego FC's lack of MLS experience and the unknowns around their 2026 roster, Austin FC is the logical favorite, especially at home where they have performed well. Austin's defensive improvements and established squad provide them a stability advantage over an expansion team likely still finding its identity. However, due to the distant match date and San Diego's unknown progression, confidence and analysis strength are limited.
Prediction: Austin FC Win
Score: 2 - 1
This prediction carries significant uncertainty due to data constraints. Austin FC's June 2024 form shows a mid-table team (7th place, +25 pts) with defensive improvements but persistent attacking struggles (1.22 goals/game). Their home record is notably stronger at 4-4-1 versus 2-3-4 on the road. However, San Diego FC doesn't debut until 2025, making the September 2026 matchup unpredictable—by then, they'll have 1.5+ seasons of MLS experience, potentially strengthened rosters, and an established tactical system. A competitive draw or San Diego upset remains highly plausible.
Prediction: Austin FC Win
Score: 2 - 1
Austin FC has historically relied on a strong home record at Q2 Stadium to maintain their standing in the Western Conference. By September 2026, Austin's core leadership, including talisman Sébastian Driussi, should provide a level of tactical continuity that expansion sides often lack. Their possession-based style is designed to wear down opponents, making it difficult for visiting teams to find a rhythm. San Diego FC, entering their second season in 2026, will likely still be navigating the complexities of MLS roster building and salary cap management. While expansion teams can be unpredictable, the historical trend favors established home sides in late-season matchups. Expect a competitive match as both teams push for playoff positioning, but Austin's familiarity with their environment and more mature squad depth give them the edge. The low analysis strength reflects the inherent uncertainty of predicting a match involving a team that has not yet played its inaugural game.
Max probability 52.5% · Gap 25.0%p
Strategy: Uncertain match. Avoid single 1X2 bets — use Double Chance or Over/Under markets below to protect your bankroll.
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
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Recorded · 2026-09-26 16:02
Austin FC · 2025 · 6th · 13W 8D 13L (GD -8)
San Diego FC · 2025 · 1st · 19W 6D 9L (GD +23)
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
3
Home Wins
1
Draws
0
Away Wins
2
Recent matches
Last meeting: 2026-05-14 (5-0)
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Strong upward trend
Strong upward trend
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Overall
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 6
At Home
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 3
Away
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 3
Overall
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 5
At Home
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 3
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
Rank and record by season
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Major League Soccer | #6 | 13W 8D 13L | -8 GD | 1.09 / 1.32 |
| 2024 | Major League Soccer | #10 | 11W 9D 14L | -9 GD | 1.15 / 1.41 |
| 2023 | Major League Soccer | #12 | 10W 9D 15L | -6 GD | 1.44 / 1.62 |
| 2022 | Major League Soccer | #2 | 16W 8D 10L | 56 pts +16 GD | 1.91 / 1.44 |
| 2021 | Major League Soccer | #12 | 9W 4D 21L | 31 pts -21 GD | 1.03 / 1.65 |
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Major League Soccer | #1 | 19W 6D 9L | +23 GD | 1.88 / 1.21 |
Registered players with season stats
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 17 Jon Gaelreogeo (30) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 11 Pasundo Daenieol Toreseu Perejeu (26) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 10 Ujeuni Mireuto (31) | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| FW | 7 Jeideun Nelseun (24) Hamstring injury | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 19 Calvin Fodrey (22) | 4 | 0 | - |
| FW | 21 Keuriseutian Ramirejeu (35) | 4 | 1 | - |
| MF | 30 Josep Rojalreseu (26) | 5 | 0 | - |
| MF | 6 Ilri Sancheseu (36) | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 20 Nikolraseu Dubersarsky (2026) | 4 | 0 | - |
| MF | 14 Besadeu Sabobichi (28) | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 8 Daniel Pereira (26) Hamstring injury | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 24 Horeuhe Alastuey (23) | 1 | 0 | - |
| MF | 16 Robeoteu Teilreo (32) Knee injury | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 15 Jon Bel (29) | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| DF | 4 Beurendan Hainjeuikeu (32) | 5 | 1 | - |
| DF | 5 Olreksandeureu Seubatokeu (32) | 5 | 0 | - |
| DF | 29 Gilreume De Teurindade Dwibaseu (26) | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 23 Jan Kolmaenik (26) | 2 | 0 | - |
| DF | 35 Mateya Joreudeuyebichi (23) | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 3 Mikel Deseulreo (31) | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| GK | 1 Beuraedeu Seuteobeo (35) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
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Full game · Over/Under 3.5 · 09-27 (Sun) 09:30 KST · Korean domestic market. Purchase shares and historical samples describe this product.
| Type | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Current | 1.48 | 2.17 |
| Initial | 1.48 | 2.17 |
| Opening | 1.48 | 2.17 |
| Overseas | 1.53↓ | 2.45↑ |
| Overseas − domestic | +0.05 | +0.28 |
| # | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.48 | 2.17 |
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