Analysis recorded · Sep 13 23:00 UTC
Data as of · 2026-09-24 23:07
Read the full analysis and its supporting records.
AI Predicted
AC Milan Win
Prediction Correct!Compare match records, season figures and the source dates.
Prediction
AC Milan Win
Confidence
82%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
3 - 0
Key Analysis Points
AC Milan are consistently strong at home, with only 2 home losses last season.
Lecce struggle offensively and rarely win away matches, scoring less than 1 goal per game.
Head-to-head history shows Milan's dominance, especially at San Siro.
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Prediction: AC Milan Win
Score: 3 - 0
Based on end-of-season 2023/24 data, AC Milan have a clear edge in quality, depth, and historical performance, especially at home. Lecce's away record is poor, and their attack is among the weakest in the league. With Milan transitioning to an attacking coach and maintaining a strong core squad, they are likely to control the match. Lecce's defensive setup may limit the margin, but Milan's superior firepower and home advantage make them heavy favorites.
Prediction: AC Milan Win
Score: 3 - 1
AC Milan are overwhelming favorites at home against Lecce. Milan finished 2nd in Serie A (75 points) with exceptional home form, while Lecce finished 14th (38 points) with a dismal away record of only 2 wins in 19 away games. Historically, Milan dominate this fixture (9-1-7 record) with a recent 3-0 home victory in April 2024. Milan's new manager Paulo Fonseca, known for attacking football, will maximize their superior squad quality featuring Leão, Pulisic, and Giroud's replacement. Lecce's goal-scoring issues (winless in last 5 with only 2 goals) and defensive vulnerabilities (-22 goal difference) suggest they'll struggle significantly away at San Siro. While Lecce managed draws at home in recent meetings, their away record makes a draw or win virtually impossible.
Prediction: AC Milan Win
Score: 2 - 0
AC Milan enters this fixture as heavy favorites, historically dominating Lecce, especially at the San Siro. Under the tactical shift of Paulo Fonseca, Milan has emphasized a high-possession, attacking style that exploits the width provided by stars like Rafael Leão. Their home record remains one of the strongest in Serie A, making it difficult for lower-table teams to find space or rhythm. Lecce’s primary challenge lies in their lack of offensive output, having averaged less than a goal per game in the previous season. While Luca Gotti has improved their defensive organization, their away form remains a significant liability. Facing a Milan side that consistently scores 2+ goals at home, Lecce will likely adopt a low-block strategy, but the disparity in individual quality across the pitch makes an upset highly improbable.
Max probability 72.5% · Gap 54.0%p
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Compared across 22 bookmakers.
Recorded · 2026-09-24 23:07
AC Milan · 2025/2026 · 5th · 20W 10D 8L (GD +18)
Lecce · 2025/2026 · 17th · 10W 8D 20L (GD -22)
Records as of this match, not current form.
Analysis Data · Recent results
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
8
Draws
2
Away Wins
0
Recent matches
Last meeting: 2026-01-19 (1-0)
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Sharp decline
Strong upward trend
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
Home/Away records
Recent
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Overall
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 4
At Home
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 3
Overall
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
At Home
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Away
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Rank and record by season
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Serie A | #5 | 20W 10D 8L | +18 GD | 1.39 / 0.92 |
| 2024/2025 | Serie A | #8 | 18W 9D 11L | +18 GD | 1.61 / 1.13 |
| 2023/2024 | Serie A | #2 | 22W 9D 7L | +27 GD | 2.0 / 1.29 |
| 2022/2023 | Serie A | #4 | 20W 10D 8L | 70 pts +21 GD | 1.68 / 1.13 |
| 2021/2022 | Serie A | #1 | 26W 8D 4L | 86 pts +38 GD | 1.82 / 0.82 |
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Serie A | #17 | 10W 8D 20L | -22 GD | 0.74 / 1.32 |
| 2024/2025 | Serie A | #17 | 8W 10D 20L | -31 GD | 0.71 / 1.53 |
| 2023/2024 | Serie A | #14 | 8W 14D 16L | -22 GD | 0.84 / 1.42 |
| 2022/2023 | Serie A | #16 | 8W 12D 18L | 36 pts -13 GD | 0.87 / 1.21 |
| 2021/2022 | Serie B | #1 | 19W 14D 5L | 71 pts +28 GD | 1.55 / 0.82 |
Registered players with season stats
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 10 Hapael Reang (27) Muscle injury | 22 | 9 | 3 |
| FW | 9 Nikeulraseu Pwilkeurugeu (33) | 14 | 1 | - |
| FW | 7 Santiago Tomaseu Gimeneseu (25) | 10 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 14 Luka Modrić (41) | 29 | 2 | 4 |
| MF | 56 Alexis Saelemaekers (27) | 28 | 2 | 4 |
| MF | 4 Saemyueol Richi (25) | 25 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 19 Yosupeu Popana (27) | 25 | 2 | 4 |
| MF | 18 Keuriseutopeo Eunkunku (29) | 24 | 5 | - |
| MF | 11 Christian Pulisic (28) | 23 | 8 | - |
| MF | 8 Ruben Ropeuteoseu-chikeu (30) | 23 | 3 | 1 |
| MF | 5 Koni De Winter | 22 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 12 Adrien Rabiot (31) Knee injury | 21 | 5 | 6 1 |
| MF | 30 Ardon Jashari (24) | 9 | 0 | - |
| DF | 23 Pikayo Tomori (29) | 27 | 0 | 5 |
| DF | 31 Strahinja Pavlović (25) | 26 | 4 | 3 |
| DF | 46 Matteo Gabbia (27) Muscle injury | 24 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 33 Davide Bartesaghi (21) | 24 | 2 | 2 |
| DF | 24 Zachary Athekame (22) | 20 | 1 | 3 |
| DF | 2 Pereubiseu Eseutopinan (28) | 16 | 1 | 3 1 |
| DF | 27 Dabideu Odogu (20) | 2 | 0 | - |
| GK | 16 Mike Maignan (31) | 29 | 0 | 3 |
| GK | 1 Pietro Terracciano (36) | 2 | 0 | - |
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 50 Santiago Pierotti (25) | 29 | 1 | 2 |
| FW | 9 Nikola Stulic (25) | 28 | 3 | 1 |
| FW | 29 Lassana Coulibaly (30) Injured | 25 | 3 | 3 |
| FW | 19 Banda Ramek Injured | 24 | 3 | 6 1 |
| FW | 23 Rikareudo Sotil (27) Back injury | 21 | 1 | 1 |
| FW | 22 Francesco Camarda (18) Injured | 17 | 1 | 1 |
| FW | 99 Walrideu Cheddira (28) | 9 | 0 | - |
| MF | 20 Yelbeo Ramadani (30) | 29 | 1 | 7 |
| MF | 11 Konan N’Dri (26) | 20 | 2 | 2 |
| MF | 10 Medon Berisha (23) Thigh injury | 13 | 2 | - |
| MF | 16 Omri Gandelman (26) | 12 | 2 | - |
| MF | 6 Salra Alrekseu | 8 | 0 | - |
| MF | 14 Torireu Helgaseun (26) | 7 | 0 | - |
| MF | 79 Oumar Ngom (22) | 7 | 0 | - |
| MF | 8 Sadik Fofana | 4 | 0 | - |
| MF | 20 Olaf Gorter (2026) | 2 | 0 | - |
| MF | 99 Eujebio Di Peurancheseuko (57) | 0 | 0 | - |
| DF | 25 Antonino Gallo (26) | 30 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 17 Danilru Veiga (24) | 28 | 0 | 7 |
| DF | 4 Kialonda Gaspar (56) Injured | 22 | 0 | 6 1 |
| DF | 5 Jamil Siebert (24) | 13 | 1 | 2 |
| DF | 3 Corrie Ndaba | 11 | 0 | - |
| DF | 18 Gaby Korentang (26) | 2 | 0 | - |
| GK | 30 Wladimiro Falcone (31) | 30 | 0 | 2 |
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