Key Analysis
Both teams show balanced defensive records and structured playstyles.
Previous detail view
Open new match centre →
⚽ Football
Brazil Serie A
🏠
Athletico-PR
Home
Final
2
-
1
Athletico-PR Win
2026-09-20 21:30
✈️
Bahia
Away
📋
28 ROUND
🗓
2026
● Athletico-PR 2025 · 2nd · 19W 8D 11L (GD +10)
● Bahia 2025 · 7th · 17W 9D 12L (GD +4)
🎯 Prediction Accuracy
AI Predicted
Draw
Prediction Missed🎯 Tokti AI Prediction
Prediction
Draw
Confidence
62%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Key Analysis Points
- ✓ Both teams show balanced defensive records and structured playstyles.
- ✓ Athletico-PR is solid at home but struggles to convert draws into wins.
- ✓ Bahia has a stronger recent form and improved attack but typically plays conservatively away.
Recommended Bets:
Under 2.5
(57%)
📊 Win Probability
Athletico-PR
Bahia
34.0%
40.0%
26.0%
Home 34.0%
Draw 40.0%
Away 26.0%
🔴
RED
Too Risky
Max probability 40.0% · Gap 6.0%p
Analysis data as of 2026-09-21 16:00
Records as of this match, not the teams' current form.
📋 Last 5 Matches
Analysis Data · Recent results
Athletico-PR
D
L
D
W
D
View 5 recent results
2026-09-12
Brasileirao Serie A
Coritiba
3 : 3
Athletico-PR
2026-09-07
Brasileirao Serie A
Cruzeiro
3 : 1
Athletico-PR
2026-08-30
Brasileirao Serie A
Athletico-PR
3 : 3
Fluminense
2026-08-25
Brasileirao Serie A
Botafogo RJ
2 : 3
Athletico-PR
2026-08-16
Brasileirao Serie A
Athletico-PR
1 : 1
Bragantino
Bahia
W
W
W
D
D
View 5 recent results
2026-09-06
Brasileirao Serie A
Bragantino
2 : 3
Bahia
2026-08-31
Brasileirao Serie A
Bahia
3 : 2
Internacional
2026-08-24
Brasileirao Serie A
Vitoria
0 : 2
Bahia
2026-08-16
Brasileirao Serie A
Chapecoense-SC
3 : 3
Bahia
2026-08-10
Brasileirao Serie A
Bahia
0 : 0
Vasco
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
4
Draws
1
Away Wins
5
Average total goals
2.2
Recent matches
2026-04-02
Brasileirao Serie A
Bahia
3 - 0
Athletico-PR
Away team won
2024-07-11
Brasileirao Serie A
Athletico-PR
1 - 3
Bahia
Away team won
2023-11-13
Brasileirao Serie A
Bahia
1 - 1
Athletico-PR
Draw
2023-07-17
Brasileirao Serie A
Athletico-PR
2 - 0
Bahia
Home team won
2021-10-10
Brasileirao Serie A
Athletico-PR
0 - 2
Bahia
Away team won
Last meeting: 2026-04-02 (3-0)
📊 Season Summary
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Athletico-PR
Rank
3
Games played
27
Record
13W · 7D · 7L
Standing points
46
Standing points / match
1.7
Goals for / against
41 / 31
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.52 / 1.15
Bahia
Rank
5
Games played
26
Record
11W · 10D · 5L
Standing points
43
Standing points / match
1.65
Goals for / against
40 / 32
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.54 / 1.23
More metrics
🕸️ Team Style Comparison
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Athletico-PR
GOAL
59
ATTACK
41
RS
63
RA
50
DEFENSE
77
Bahia
GOAL
35
ATTACK
46
RS
54
RA
62
DEFENSE
67
📈 Recent Form Trend
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Athletico-PR
↑
7.54
Strong upward trend
Bahia
↑
5.17
Strong upward trend
⚖️ Performance Metrics
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
1.7
Standing points / match
1.65
1.52
Avg goals scored
1.54
1.15
Avg goals allowed
1.23
Home/Away records
2.15
Standing points / match
1.69
1.77
Avg goals scored
1.54
0.77
Avg goals allowed
1.46
Recent
1.63
Standing points / match
1.75
1.88
Avg goals scored
1.63
1.5
Avg goals allowed
1.13
🔥 Streaks
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Athletico-PR
Overall
Unbeaten 1
Winless 3
Best: Win 4 · Unbeaten 10
At Home
Unbeaten 11
Winless 2
Best: Win 5 · Unbeaten 11
Away
Unbeaten 1
Winless 2
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 5
Bahia
Overall
Win 3
Unbeaten 10
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 10
At Home
Win 1
Unbeaten 6
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 6
Away
Win 2
Unbeaten 5
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 5
📚 Season History
Rank and record by season
Athletico-PR
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Brasileirao Serie B | #2 | 19W 8D 11L | +10 GD | 1.39 / 1.13 |
| 2024 | Brasileirao Serie A | #17 | 11W 9D 18L | -6 GD | 1.05 / 1.21 |
| 2023 | Brasileirao Serie A | #8 | 14W 14D 10L | +8 GD | 1.34 / 1.13 |
| 2022 | Brasileirao Serie A | #6 | 16W 10D 12L | 58 pts 0 GD | 1.26 / 1.26 |
| 2021 | Brasileirao Serie A | #14 | 13W 8D 17L | 47 pts -4 GD | 1.08 / 1.18 |
Bahia
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Brasileirao Serie A | #7 | 17W 9D 12L | +4 GD | 1.32 / 1.21 |
| 2024 | Brasileirao Serie A | #8 | 15W 8D 15L | 0 GD | 1.29 / 1.29 |
| 2023 | Brasileirao Serie A | #16 | 12W 8D 18L | -3 GD | 1.32 / 1.39 |
| 2022 | Brasileirao Serie B | #4 | 17W 11D 10L | 62 pts +14 GD | 1.13 / 0.76 |
| 2021 | Brasileirao Serie A | #18 | 11W 10D 17L | 43 pts -9 GD | 1.11 / 1.34 |
👥 Squads
Registered players with season stats
Athletico-PR
18 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 9 Kevin Stiven Viveros Rodallega (26) | 7 | 3 | 2 |
| FW | 20 Yulrimareu (25) | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| FW | 7 Yon Mendosa (34) | 7 | 3 | - |
| FW | 13 Kareulroseu Teran (26) Muscle injury | 5 | 0 | - |
| MF | 27 Huan Kamilro Poreutilra (28) | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 14 Ruiseu Guseutabo (39) Injured | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 10 Bruno Zapelli (24) | 6 | 0 | 1 1 |
| MF | 53 Dudu (20) | 6 | 1 | - |
| MF | 16 Jaedeuseun (33) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 47 Chiqueti (2026) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 8 Joao Cruz (2026) | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 3 Reo (30) | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 29 Gaeseuton Benabidejeu (31) | 7 | 0 | - |
| DF | 37 Eseukwibel Rukaseu | 6 | 0 | - |
| DF | 33 Huan Pelripe Agwire Tabareseu (30) | 5 | 0 | - |
| DF | 6 Leonardo Derik Diaseu Gonkalbeseu (2026) | 4 | 0 | - |
| DF | 5 Filipinho (25) | 1 | 0 | - |
| GK | 23 Santoseu (36) | 7 | 0 | 1 |
Bahia
25 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 16 Erick Pulga (26) | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| FW | 99 Keuriseutian Olribera (24) | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| FW | 7 Santoseu Ademireu (31) | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| FW | 23 Mateo Sanabria (56) | 4 | 1 | - |
| FW | 12 Wilrian Hose (35) Hamstring injury | 4 | 2 | - |
| FW | 27 Ebeoraldo (35) | 3 | 2 | - |
| MF | 14 Erik (29) | 9 | 4 | - |
| MF | 8 Kaio Alreksandeureu (27) | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 15 Michel Araujo (30) | 4 | 1 | - |
| MF | 5 Nikolraseu Beuraieon Asebedo Tabareseu (27) | 3 | 0 | - |
| MF | 6 Jang Rukaseu (28) | 3 | 2 | - |
| MF | 78 Pedeuro Coni (20) | 3 | 0 | - |
| MF | 10 Ebeoteon Ribairo (37) Hamstring injury | 3 | 1 | - |
| MF | 55 Sidney (20) | 1 | 0 | - |
| MF | 33 Dibideu (31) | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 25 Iago (29) | 6 | 1 | - |
| DF | 3 Gabriel Xavier (25) | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 4 Kanu (29) Hamstring injury | 4 | 0 | - |
| DF | 66 Ze Guilherme (21) | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 46 Ruchiano Batiseuta Da Silba Junieo (27) | 3 | 1 | - |
| DF | 21 Santiago Ramoseu (25) | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 2 Jilbereutu (33) Muscle injury | 2 | 0 | - |
| DF | 44 Marcos Victor (25) | 2 | 0 | - |
| GK | 34 Joao Paulru (31) | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| GK | 1 Honaldu (30) Injured | 5 | 0 | - |
Detailed Analysis
Match Outlook
Athletico-PR is solid at home but struggles to convert draws into wins.
Team Status
Bahia has a stronger recent form and improved attack but typically plays conservatively away.
Stored match probabilities
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
Home win34.0%
Draw40.0%
Away win26.0%
Stored forecast agreement details
Home Win0%
Draw66%
Away Win33%
🔎 Forecast Agreement
2 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick. Confidence is limited — treat this match as uncertain.
Show each forecast
ChatGPT · Forecast 1
65%Prediction: Draw
Score: 1 - 1
- Both teams show balanced defensive records and structured playstyles.
- Athletico-PR is solid at home but struggles to convert draws into wins.
- Bahia has a stronger recent form and improved attack but typically plays conservatively away.
Read full reasoning
Based on June 2024 data, Athletico-PR and Bahia appear evenly matched: Athletico-PR is tough at home with a pragmatic setup, while Bahia has a slight edge in scoring and recent results but often plays cautiously on the road. The head-to-head history is balanced, with frequent draws. Neither side shows a decisive advantage in squad strength or form. Given these trends, a low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome, though Athletico-PR could edge it if their attack improves or Bahia's away form slips.
Claude · Forecast 2
62%Prediction: Bahia Win
Score: 1 - 2
- Bahia's superior current form with 2 wins in last 5 games vs Athletico-PR's inconsistent 1W-2D-2L record
- Bahia's significantly better defensive record (0.71 GPG conceded vs 0.85) and 6th place standing provides advantage over 9th-place Athletico-PR
- Bahia's attacking quality under Rogério Ceni with creative players like Everton Ribeiro and Cauly outmatches Athletico-PR's pragmatic, defensive setup under Cuca
- Historical H2H momentum favors Bahia with recent 1-0 victory in April 2024 and consistent competitive record
Read full reasoning
Bahia enters this matchup as the stronger team based on 2024 form data. They currently sit 6th in standings with 12 points and a +4 goal differential, compared to Athletico-PR's 9th place with 9 points and +1 differential. Bahia's recent results show 2 wins in their last 5 games with only 1 loss, demonstrating superior consistency. Athletico-PR struggles with conversion, recording mixed results with 2 draws that could have been wins. Tactically, Bahia's possession-focused approach under Rogério Ceni, combined with creative playmakers like Everton Ribeiro and Cauly, should overcome Athletico-PR's more conservative, pragmatic system. Defensively, Bahia's 0.71 goals-against average is notably better than Athletico-PR's 0.85. Additionally, Bahia's away record is respectable with solid counter-attacking play, while Athletico-PR has shown vulnerability in recent matches.
Gemini · Forecast 3
60%Prediction: Draw
Score: 1 - 1
- Athletico-PR's synthetic pitch at the Arena da Baixada provides a unique home advantage.
- Bahia's tactical evolution and defensive discipline have significantly improved their away form.
- Historical head-to-head data shows a high frequency of narrow results and competitive stalemates.
Read full reasoning
Athletico-PR traditionally relies on their high-intensity home environment to pressure opponents, yet their 2024 form indicates a struggle to consistently convert possession into goals. Bahia, under the tactical guidance of Rogério Ceni and supported by City Group investment, has developed into a more resilient unit capable of controlling the tempo in difficult away venues. Given that both teams feature experienced midfield anchors—such as Fernandinho for the hosts and Everton Ribeiro for the visitors—the match is expected to be a tactical battle in the center of the park. Athletico's home strength is likely to be neutralized by Bahia's improved defensive organization, leading to a closely contested draw. The historical trend of tight matches further supports a low-scoring stalemate as the most probable outcome for this late-season fixture.