Based on historical data up to mid-2024, Leverkusen are clear favorites due to their unbeaten run, superior squad quality, and dominant results against Koln. Koln's relegation and squad uncertainty further widen the gap. While player transfers or managerial changes before 2026 could affect the picture, the data strongly supports Leverkusen. However, the confidence is not maximal given the time gap and potential squad changes over two seasons.

Bayer Leverkusen enters this fixture as overwhelming favorites, having completed a historic unbeaten 2023/24 Bundesliga season under Xabi Alonso with 90 points and a +65 goal differential. FC Köln's relegation to 2. Bundesliga dramatically shifts the competitive balance, as they finished 17th with only 27 points and a -32 goal difference. Köln's attacking deficiency (28 goals) and defensive frailty (60 conceded) contrast sharply with Leverkusen's elite metrics. While Köln may attempt consolidation during their 2. Bundesliga campaign, any Bundesliga reunion would occur after significant squad turnover and rebuilding. Leverkusen's established squad continuity, proven tactical coherence, and psychological dominance make an away victory highly probable with clean sheet likelihood.

Bayer Leverkusen remains the overwhelming favorite in this matchup based on the historical data and the massive performance gap established during their 2023/24 title-winning season. Under Xabi Alonso, Leverkusen developed a tactical identity centered on high possession and rapid transitions that Köln has historically struggled to contain. Leverkusen's defensive record, conceding the fewest goals in the league, makes it difficult for a Köln side that has struggled for offensive consistency to find the back of the net. While the 2026 date introduces variables like squad turnover, the institutional momentum favors Leverkusen. Köln's recent relegation and subsequent climb back to the top flight suggests a team still in transition, whereas Leverkusen has solidified its position as a European powerhouse. Expect Leverkusen to control the tempo from the midfield, utilizing wing-backs to stretch Köln's defense and capitalizing on the clinical finishing of their core attackers.