Key Analysis
Freiburg had a significantly better home record than Union Berlin’s away record in 2023/24.
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⚽ Football
BUNDESLIGA
🏠
Freiburg
Home
Scheduled
VS
Match Time
2026-11-08
17:30
✈️
Union Berlin
Away
📋
9 ROUND
🗓
2026/2027
● Freiburg 2025/2026 · 7th · 13W 8D 13L (GD -6)
● Union Berlin 2025/2026 · 11th · 10W 9D 15L (GD -14)
Freiburg favored
45%
Confidence
Medium
- · Freiburg last 5: 2W 1D 2L
- · Head-to-head 10 matches: home 1W 4D 5L
- · Data-based estimate points the same way
AI analysis 2026-11-01 22:23
·
data as of 2026-11-04 21:22
🎯 Tokti AI Prediction
Prediction
Freiburg Win
Confidence
55%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Key Analysis Points
- ✓ Freiburg had a significantly better home record than Union Berlin’s away record in 2023/24.
- ✓ Union Berlin dominated recent head-to-heads, but their squad and coach situation are uncertain looking ahead.
- ✓ Both teams struggled defensively, but Freiburg’s attack was more productive than Union Berlin’s.
Recommended Bets:
Home Win
(55%)
Over 2.5
(50%)
📊 Win Probability
Freiburg
Union Berlin
45.0%
29.5%
25.5%
Home 45.0%
Draw 29.5%
Away 25.5%
🟡
YELLOW
Caution
Max probability 45.0% · Gap 15.5%p
Strategy: Uncertain match. Avoid single 1X2 bets — use Double Chance or Over/Under markets below to protect your bankroll.
Analysis data as of 2026-11-04 21:22
📋 Last 5 Matches
Analysis Data · Recent results
Freiburg
D
W
L
L
W
View 5 recent results
2026-10-31
Bundesliga
Augsburg
1 : 1
Freiburg
2026-10-29
DFB-Pokal
Freiburg
3 : 2
Wolfsburg
2026-10-26
Bundesliga
Freiburg
1 : 3
Bayern Munich
2026-10-23
UECL
Monaco
3 : 0
Freiburg
2026-10-16
UECL
Freiburg
3 : 1
Jablonec
Union Berlin
D
L
D
D
W
View 5 recent results
2026-11-01
Bundesliga
Union Berlin
1 : 1
FC Koln
2026-10-28
DFB-Pokal
FC Koln
5 : 0
Union Berlin
2026-10-24
Bundesliga
Augsburg
1 : 1
Union Berlin
2026-10-17
Bundesliga
Union Berlin
0 : 0
Dortmund
2026-10-10
Bundesliga
Union Berlin
1 : 0
Elversberg
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
1
Draws
4
Away Wins
5
Average total goals
2.3
Recent matches
2026-03-16
Bundesliga
Freiburg
0 - 1
Union Berlin
Away team won
2025-11-01
Bundesliga
Union Berlin
0 - 0
Freiburg
Draw
2025-03-30
Bundesliga
Freiburg
1 - 2
Union Berlin
Away team won
2024-11-09
Bundesliga
Union Berlin
0 - 0
Freiburg
Draw
2024-05-18
Bundesliga
Union Berlin
2 - 1
Freiburg
Away team won
Last meeting: 2026-03-16 (0-1)
📊 Season Summary
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Freiburg
Rank
6
Games played
6
Record
3W · 2D · 1L
Standing points
11
Standing points / match
1.83
Goals for / against
11 / 8
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.83 / 1.33
Union Berlin
Rank
13
Games played
8
Record
1W · 4D · 3L
Standing points
7
Standing points / match
0.88
Goals for / against
7 / 19
Avg goals scored / allowed
0.88 / 2.38
More metrics
🕸️ Team Style Comparison
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Freiburg
GOAL
100
ATTACK
45
RS
61
RA
56
DEFENSE
56
Union Berlin
GOAL
15
ATTACK
9
RS
29
RA
21
DEFENSE
22
📈 Recent Form Trend
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Freiburg
↑
2.34
Strong upward trend
Union Berlin
↓
-4.19
Sharp decline
⚖️ Performance Metrics
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
1.83
Standing points / match
0.88
1.83
Avg goals scored
0.88
1.33
Avg goals allowed
2.38
Home/Away records
2
Standing points / match
0.33
2.33
Avg goals scored
0.33
1.67
Avg goals allowed
4
Recent
1.83
Standing points / match
0.88
1.83
Avg goals scored
0.88
1.33
Avg goals allowed
2.38
🔥 Streaks
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Freiburg
Overall
Unbeaten 1
Winless 2
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 4
At Home
Lose 1
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 2
Away
Unbeaten 3
Winless 2
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 3
Union Berlin
Overall
Unbeaten 4
Winless 3
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 4
At Home
Unbeaten 3
Winless 2
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 3
Away
Unbeaten 1
Winless 3
Best: Unbeaten 1
📚 Season History
Rank and record by season
Freiburg
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Bundesliga | #7 | 13W 8D 13L | -6 GD | 1.5 / 1.68 |
| 2024/2025 | Bundesliga | #5 | 16W 7D 11L | -4 GD | 1.44 / 1.56 |
| 2023/2024 | Bundesliga | #10 | 11W 9D 14L | -13 GD | 1.32 / 1.71 |
| 2022/2023 | Bundesliga | #5 | 17W 8D 9L | 59 pts +7 GD | 1.5 / 1.29 |
| 2021/2022 | Bundesliga | #6 | 15W 10D 9L | 55 pts +12 GD | 1.71 / 1.35 |
Union Berlin
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Bundesliga | #11 | 10W 9D 15L | -14 GD | 1.29 / 1.71 |
| 2024/2025 | Bundesliga | #13 | 10W 10D 14L | -16 GD | 1.03 / 1.5 |
| 2023/2024 | Bundesliga | #15 | 9W 6D 19L | -25 GD | 0.97 / 1.71 |
| 2022/2023 | Bundesliga | #4 | 18W 8D 8L | 62 pts +13 GD | 1.5 / 1.12 |
| 2021/2022 | Bundesliga | #5 | 16W 9D 9L | 57 pts +6 GD | 1.47 / 1.29 |
👥 Squads
Registered players with season stats
Freiburg
19 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 9 Rukaseu Holreo (32) | 25 | 1 | 1 |
| FW | 7 Derry Scherhant (24) | 24 | 4 | 2 |
| FW | 14 Seujeuki Yuito (25) | 22 | 4 | 3 |
| MF | 32 Binchenjo Geuripo (33) | 27 | 7 | - |
| MF | 8 Maksimilrian Egesyutain (30) | 27 | 2 | 3 |
| MF | 31 Igoreu Matanobichi (23) | 24 | 8 | - |
| MF | 44 Yohan Manzambi (21) | 21 | 3 | 4 2 |
| MF | 6 Oseuteoheiji Paeteurik | 20 | 1 | 4 |
| MF | 27 Nikolraseu Hopeulreo (36) | 8 | 0 | - |
| DF | 28 Matiaseu Ginteo (32) | 26 | 2 | 1 |
| DF | 29 Teuru Pilrip | 23 | 1 | 2 |
| DF | 19 Yan-nikeulraseu Beseute (27) | 21 | 1 | 5 |
| DF | 30 Keuriseutian Gwinteo (33) | 19 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 17 Rukaseu Kwibeulreo (34) | 16 | 2 | 2 |
| DF | 33 Jordy Makengo (25) | 16 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 3 Pilrip Rienhareuteu (30) | 13 | 0 | 4 1 |
| DF | 37 Makseu Rojenpeldeo (23) Hamstring injury | 12 | 0 | - |
| DF | 5 Aenseoni Jeong (35) | 10 | 0 | 2 |
| GK | 1 Atubolru Noa | 27 | 0 | - |
Union Berlin
21 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 10 Ilyas Ansah (22) | 26 | 5 | 1 |
| FW | 23 Andeurei Ilrichi (26) | 25 | 1 | 5 |
| FW | 7 Olribeo Beokeu (29) | 22 | 4 | 2 |
| FW | 21 Tim Skarke (30) | 17 | 1 | - |
| FW | 24 Robeoteu Seukopeu (30) Muscle injury | 3 | 0 | - |
| MF | 8 Rani Khedira (32) | 26 | 5 | 6 |
| MF | 14 Reopolteu Kwereupelteu (23) | 26 | 2 | 6 |
| MF | 6 Aljoscha Kemlein (22) | 25 | 0 | 3 |
| MF | 11 Jeong Woo-yeong (27) | 25 | 3 | - |
| MF | 19 Janik Haberer (32) | 24 | 0 | 8 |
| MF | 13 Andeuraseu Syapeo (27) | 21 | 1 | 2 1 |
| MF | 33 Alrekseu Keural (28) | 17 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 18 Josip Juranović (31) | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 5 Danilho Doeki (28) | 27 | 4 | 4 |
| DF | 39 Kon Derik Aseo | 25 | 1 | 4 1 |
| DF | 28 Christopher Trimmel (39) | 24 | 0 | 7 |
| DF | 4 Diogo Reiteu (27) | 16 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 15 Tom Rothe | 14 | 1 | 1 1 |
| DF | 34 Seutaenri Eunsoki (27) | 12 | 1 | 2 |
| GK | 1 Peurederik Ronnou (34) | 26 | 0 | 2 |
| GK | 31 Matheo Raab (28) Hand injury | 1 | 0 | - |
Detailed Analysis
Match Outlook
Union Berlin dominated recent head-to-heads, but their squad and coach situation are uncertain looking ahead.
Team Status
Both teams struggled defensively, but Freiburg’s attack was more productive than Union Berlin’s.
Stored match probabilities
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
Home win45.0%
Draw29.0%
Away win26.0%
Stored forecast agreement details
Home Win100%
Draw0%
Away Win0%
🔎 Forecast Agreement
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Show each forecast
ChatGPT · Forecast 1
65%Prediction: Freiburg Win
Score: 2 - 1
- Freiburg had a significantly better home record than Union Berlin’s away record in 2023/24.
- Union Berlin dominated recent head-to-heads, but their squad and coach situation are uncertain looking ahead.
- Both teams struggled defensively, but Freiburg’s attack was more productive than Union Berlin’s.
Read full reasoning
While Union Berlin have an excellent recent record against Freiburg, their away form was very poor and their squad is likely to undergo changes after a difficult season. Freiburg, despite being in transition after Christian Streich’s departure, still showed stronger home performances and have a more reliable attack. Given Union’s historically weak away results and Freiburg’s relative home stability, Freiburg have a slight edge, but the high number of draws and defensive frailty for both sides keep the draw chance relatively high.
Claude · Forecast 2
62%Prediction: Freiburg Win
Score: 2 - 1
- Freiburg's strong home record (6W-6D-5L) provides advantage despite recent form struggles
- Union Berlin's poor away record (2W-2D-13L in 2023/24) is historically weak and likely to persist
- Recent H2H favors Union Berlin (4W-1D in last 5), but these matchups were competitive with narrow margins
- Both teams are in transition periods post-2024, creating uncertainty but Freiburg's home stability is key
Read full reasoning
Despite Union Berlin's recent dominance over Freiburg (4 wins in last 5 meetings), this match favors the home side. Freiburg's home form in 2023/24 was solid with 6 wins and 6 draws (24 points), while Union Berlin's away record was catastrophic—only 2 wins in 17 away games (8 points). The psychological advantage of playing at the Schwarzwald-Stadion, combined with Union Berlin's historically poor away performance, makes Freiburg favorites. However, confidence is moderate (62%) due to both teams undergoing significant changes between 2024 and 2026, and Union Berlin's proven ability to compete against Freiburg in recent fixtures. The prediction of a 2-1 Freiburg win reflects home advantage while acknowledging Union Berlin's competitiveness.
Gemini · Forecast 3
40%Prediction: Freiburg Win
Score: 2 - 1
- Freiburg's historical stability at home vs Union Berlin's poor away record
- Union Berlin's recent head-to-head dominance (4 wins in last 5 meetings)
- Post-Christian Streich era transition for Freiburg impacting tactical consistency
Read full reasoning
Projecting to 2026 based on 2023/24 data suggests a match between two teams in transition. Freiburg remains a historically stable side at home, while Union Berlin's 2023/24 campaign revealed a catastrophic away form, securing only 8 points on the road. While Union has held a psychological advantage in recent head-to-head matchups, their offensive output (averaging less than 1 goal per game) is a significant liability. Freiburg's structural commitment to youth and internal growth typically allows them to rebound from coaching changes more effectively than teams reliant on veteran turnover. Expect a high-intensity, low-scoring affair where Freiburg's home-field advantage and superior creative stats (led by players like Grifo) eventually break down Union's defensive block. The low confidence score reflects the long-range nature of this projection and the potential for significant squad changes over two years.