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⚽ Football World Cup
🏠

South Korea

Home

Final
3 - 0

South Korea Win

2026-09-24 10:00

✈️

Ecuador

Away

Korean market · Odds & records

🏟 수원 월드컵 경기장

🎯 Tokti AI Prediction

Prediction

South Korea Win

Confidence

70%

How strongly our analysis backs this pick

Predicted Score

2 - 1

Key Analysis Points

  • ✓ South Korea is in excellent form, unbeaten in their last 4 and scoring freely.
  • ✓ Head-to-head favors South Korea, with 2 clean-sheet wins from previous meetings.
  • ✓ Ecuador struggles away from home and has a less consistent attack against strong defenses.
Recommended Bets: Home Win (70%) Over 2.5 (65%)

📊 Win Probability

South Korea
50.0%
27.5%
22.5%
Ecuador
Home 50.0%
Draw 27.5%
Away 22.5%

🧭 Market Signals

What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved

Where the money went

Payout 87.1%
55.6%
34.9%
Home 55.6% Draw 34.9% Away 9.5%

Odds movement (open → now)

Home
2.42 → 1.93
▼ 0.49
Draw
2.85 → 3.20
▲ 0.35
Away
2.60 → 3.15
▲ 0.55

Falling odds mean money moved onto that side.

Most likely scorelines

0-0
29.56%
1-0
22.7%
0-1
13.45%
1-1
10.25%
2-0
8.52%

Next fixtures

South Korea
09/28 H Uruguay International Football
Ecuador
10/01 A Japan International Football

Compared across 24 bookmakers.

🟡

Caution

Max probability 50.0% · Gap 22.5%p

YELLOW
Analysis data as of 2026-09-26 14:04

Records as of this match, not the teams' current form.

📋 Last 5 Matches

Analysis Data · Recent results

South Korea
L L W W W
View 5 recent results
2026-06-25 FIFA World Cup
South Africa 1 : 0 South Korea
2026-06-19 FIFA World Cup
Mexico 1 : 0 South Korea
2026-06-12 FIFA World Cup
South Korea 2 : 1 Czech Republic
2026-06-04 International Friendly
South Korea 1 : 0 El Salvador
2026-05-31 International Friendly
South Korea 5 : 0 Trinidad & Tobago
Ecuador
L W D L W
View 5 recent results
2026-07-01 FIFA World Cup
Mexico 2 : 0 Ecuador
2026-06-26 FIFA World Cup
Ecuador 2 : 1 Germany
2026-06-21 FIFA World Cup
Ecuador 0 : 0 Curacao
2026-06-15 FIFA World Cup
Ivory Coast 1 : 0 Ecuador
2026-06-08 International Friendly
Ecuador 3 : 0 Guatemala

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Analysis Data · Recent meetings

Total

1

Home Wins

1

Draws

0

Away Wins

0

📊 Season Summary

Analysis Data · Current season stats

South Korea

Goals for / against 116 / 59
Avg goals scored / allowed 1.63 / 0.83

Ecuador

Goals for / against 66 / 42
Avg goals scored / allowed 1.05 / 0.67

🎯 Betting Options

All available bet types with odds

The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.

Match Winner 1 source #4251 Odds & records

Home

1.93

Draw

3.2

Away

3.15

Match Winner 2 sources #4256 Odds & records

Home

2.9

36.0%

Draw

1.94

Away

3.45

33.5%

More metrics

🕸️ Team Style Comparison

Analysis Data · 5 source indices

South Korea
GOAL 30 ATTACK 26 RS 29 RA 71 DEFENSE 64
Ecuador
GOAL 48 ATTACK 44 RS 38 RA 71 DEFENSE 74

📈 Recent Form Trend

Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance

South Korea
↓ -0.83

Slight decline

Ecuador
↑ 1.62

Slight improvement

⚖️ Performance Metrics

Overall · home/away records · recent form

Overall

1.63 Avg goals scored 1.05
0.83 Avg goals allowed 0.67

Home/Away records

1.71 Avg goals scored 0.78
0.88 Avg goals allowed 0.81

Recent

0.88 Avg goals scored 1.13
0.88 Avg goals allowed 0.88

Detailed Analysis

Key Analysis

South Korea is in excellent form, unbeaten in their last 4 and scoring freely.

Match Outlook

Head-to-head favors South Korea, with 2 clean-sheet wins from previous meetings.

Team Status

Ecuador struggles away from home and has a less consistent attack against strong defenses.

Stored match probabilities

Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.

Home win50.0%
Draw28.0%
Away win23.0%
Stored forecast agreement details
Home Win100%
Draw0%
Away Win0%

🔎 Forecast Agreement

3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick. Confidence is limited — treat this match as uncertain.

Show each forecast

ChatGPT · Forecast 1

75%

Prediction: South Korea Win

Score: 2 - 1

  • South Korea is in excellent form, unbeaten in their last 4 and scoring freely.
  • Head-to-head favors South Korea, with 2 clean-sheet wins from previous meetings.
  • Ecuador struggles away from home and has a less consistent attack against strong defenses.
Read full reasoning

South Korea enters this match with strong momentum, a potent attack, and historical superiority over Ecuador. Their defensive solidity and home advantage further tilt the balance in their favor. Ecuador, while talented and youthful, has not shown consistent results against top opposition and is less reliable away from home, especially outside the altitude advantage of Quito. Both teams are expected to field strong lineups, but South Korea's recent results and tactical evolution provide a clear edge.

Claude · Forecast 2

72%

Prediction: South Korea Win

Score: 2 - 0

  • South Korea in exceptional form: unbeaten in last 4 matches with 12 goals and only 1 conceded
  • Perfect head-to-head record: South Korea won both previous meetings against Ecuador (2-0 in 2019, 3-0 in 2017)
  • Ecuador's vulnerability in defense: conceded in 3 of last 5 games with inconsistent performance against top opposition
  • Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in leading attacking form during qualifying campaign
  • South Korea's strong away form in qualifiers provides confidence despite neutral/away venue potential
Read full reasoning

South Korea enters this World Cup group-stage match as clear favorites based on dominant qualifying form and superior recent performance metrics. Having won 5 of their last 6 qualifiers with an exceptional +17 goal differential and conceding just 1 goal, South Korea's attacking potency under new management is evident. Ecuador, while showing improvement under Félix Sánchez Bas with young talents like Kendry Páez emerging, remains inconsistent and has struggled against top-tier opposition (losses to Argentina and Italy). The perfect 2-0 head-to-head advantage strongly favors South Korea. Ecuador's midfield strength with Moisés Caicedo provides some defensive resistance, but South Korea's pace on the flanks through fullback support and the offensive prowess of Son Heung-min should prove decisive. Ecuador's altitude advantage is negated in a neutral or away setting.

Gemini · Forecast 3

65%

Prediction: South Korea Win

Score: 2 - 1

  • South Korea's superior attacking efficiency led by Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in.
  • Ecuador's high-pressing midfield anchored by Moisés Caicedo.
  • Historical head-to-head advantage with South Korea winning both previous meetings.
  • Defensive stability provided by Kim Min-jae against Ecuador's physical forwards.
Read full reasoning

South Korea enters this fixture with a distinct tactical advantage in the final third. The creative synergy between Lee Kang-in and Son Heung-min remains one of the most potent in international football, capable of breaking down disciplined defensive blocks through rapid transitions. Defensively, the presence of Kim Min-jae provides the necessary recovery speed and aerial dominance to neutralize Ecuador’s physical approach and direct counter-attacking threats. Ecuador relies heavily on the midfield engine of Moisés Caicedo and the creative spark of young prodigy Kendry Páez. While they possess superior physicality and high-pressing capabilities, their historical struggle to convert chances against organized, top-tier defenses remains a limiting factor. South Korea’s perfect historical record against Ecuador, including two clean sheets, suggests a psychological edge. Expect a closely contested match where South Korea’s superior technical finishing and defensive leadership ultimately tip the scales.

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