Key Analysis
Kashiwa Reysol have a stronger league position and a better away record than Machida Zelvia's home record.
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⚽ Football
J League
Machida
Home
Final
2
-
4
Kashiwa Reysol Win
2026-09-20 07:00
Kashiwa Reysol
Away
📋
8 ROUND
🗓
2026/2027
Korean market · Odds & records
🏟 마치다 기온 스타디움
● Machida 2026 · 3rd · 8W 5D 3L
● Kashiwa Reysol 2026 · 8th · 6W 1D 0L
🎯 Prediction Accuracy
AI Predicted
Kashiwa Reysol Win
Prediction Correct!🎯 Tokti AI Prediction
Prediction
Kashiwa Reysol Win
Confidence
57%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
1 - 2
Key Analysis Points
- ✓ Kashiwa Reysol have a stronger league position and a better away record than Machida Zelvia's home record.
- ✓ Head-to-head history favors Kashiwa, who are unbeaten against Machida, including an away win.
- ✓ Key attacking players like Matheus Savio and Yuki Muto provide Kashiwa with a more reliable goal threat.
Recommended Bets:
Away Win
(57%)
Over 2.5
(52%)
📊 Win Probability
Machida
Kashiwa Reysol
29.0%
35.0%
36.0%
Home 29.0%
Draw 35.0%
Away 36.0%
🧭 Market Signals
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Where the money went
Payout 86.9%
62.6%
30.9%
Home 62.6%
Draw 30.9%
Away 6.5%
Odds movement (open → now)
Home
2.33
→
2.22
▼ 0.11
Draw
3.05
→
3.10
▲ 0.05
Away
2.55
→
2.65
▲ 0.10
Falling odds mean money moved onto that side.
Most likely scorelines
2-0
14.82%
1-0
12.42%
3-0
11.9%
2-1
8.29%
4-0
7.22%
Next fixtures
FC Machida Zelvia
09/23
H
Tochigi SC
Emperor's Cup
10/03
H
Kyoto Sanga
J.League Cup
10/10
A
Kyoto Sanga
J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol
09/23
H
FC Imabari
Emperor's Cup
10/03
H
Gamba Osaka
J.League Cup
10/09
H
Vissel Kobe
J1 League
Compared across 24 bookmakers.
🔴
RED
Too Risky
Max probability 36.0% · Gap 1.0%p
Analysis data as of 2026-09-24 23:06
Records as of this match, not the teams' current form.
📋 Last 5 Matches
Analysis Data · Recent results
Machida
D
W
W
D
W
View 5 recent results
2026-09-12
J League
Machida
1 : 1
Yokohama F. Marinos
2026-09-06
J League
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3
Machida
2026-09-02
J League
Machida
2 : 1
Kawasaki Frontale
2026-08-29
J League
Mito
1 : 1
Machida
2026-08-26
Emperor's Cup
Machida
3 : 0
Grulla Morioka
Kashiwa Reysol
W
L
L
W
W
View 5 recent results
2026-09-11
J League
Kyoto
2 : 3
Kashiwa Reysol
2026-09-06
J League
Kashiwa Reysol
0 : 2
Yokohama F. Marinos
2026-09-02
J League
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 0
Kashiwa Reysol
2026-08-29
J League
Shimizu S-Pulse
0 : 1
Kashiwa Reysol
2026-08-26
Emperor's Cup
Kashiwa Reysol
2 : 1
Senshu University
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
8
Home Wins
4
Draws
1
Away Wins
3
Average total goals
1.75
Recent matches
2026-04-11
J League
Machida
1 - 0
Kashiwa Reysol
Home team won
2026-03-14
J League
Kashiwa Reysol
0 - 1
Machida
Home team won
2025-12-06
J League
Kashiwa Reysol
1 - 0
Machida
Away team won
2025-05-17
J League
Machida
3 - 0
Kashiwa Reysol
Home team won
2024-10-19
J League
Kashiwa Reysol
1 - 1
Machida
Draw
Last meeting: 2026-04-11 (1-0)
📊 Season Summary
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Machida
Rank
1
Games played
7
Record
5W · 2D · 0L
Standing points
17
Standing points / match
2.43
Goals for / against
19 / 6
Avg goals scored / allowed
2.71 / 0.86
Kashiwa Reysol
Rank
3
Games played
7
Record
5W · 0D · 2L
Standing points
15
Standing points / match
2.14
Goals for / against
13 / 10
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.86 / 1.43
🎯 Betting Options
All available bet types with odds
The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
More metrics
🕸️ Team Style Comparison
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Machida
GOAL
55
ATTACK
44
RS
90
RA
71
DEFENSE
74
Kashiwa Reysol
GOAL
45
ATTACK
45
RS
62
RA
52
DEFENSE
72
📈 Recent Form Trend
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Machida
↑
11.66
Strong upward trend
Kashiwa Reysol
↑
3.99
Strong upward trend
⚖️ Performance Metrics
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
2.43
Standing points / match
2.14
2.71
Avg goals scored
1.86
0.86
Avg goals allowed
1.43
Home/Away records
2.33
Standing points / match
2.25
2
Avg goals scored
1.75
1
Avg goals allowed
1.25
Recent
2.43
Standing points / match
2.14
2.71
Avg goals scored
1.86
0.86
Avg goals allowed
1.43
🔥 Streaks
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Machida
Overall
Unbeaten 7
Winless 1
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 7
At Home
Unbeaten 3
Winless 1
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 3
Away
Win 1
Unbeaten 4
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 4
Kashiwa Reysol
Overall
Win 1
Best: Win 4 · Unbeaten 4
At Home
Lose 1
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 2
Away
Win 1
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 2
📚 Season History
Rank and record by season
Machida
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | J League | #3 | 8W 5D 3L | — | 0.11 / 0.0 |
| 2025 | J League | #6 | 17W 9D 12L | +14 GD | 1.37 / 1.0 |
| 2024 | J League | #3 | 19W 9D 10L | +20 GD | 1.42 / 0.89 |
| 2023 | J League Division | #1 | 26W 9D 7L | +44 GD | 1.88 / 0.83 |
| 2022 | J League Division | #15 | 14W 9D 19L | 51 pts +1 GD | 1.21 / 1.19 |
Kashiwa Reysol
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | J League | #8 | 6W 1D 0L | — | 0.61 / 0.0 |
| 2025 | J League | #2 | 21W 12D 5L | +26 GD | 1.58 / 0.89 |
| 2024 | J League | #17 | 9W 14D 15L | -12 GD | 1.03 / 1.34 |
| 2023 | J League | #17 | 6W 15D 13L | -14 GD | 0.97 / 1.38 |
| 2022 | J League | #7 | 13W 8D 13L | 47 pts -1 GD | 1.26 / 1.29 |
👥 Squads
Registered players with season stats
Machida
19 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 27 Erik (32) | 8 | 5 | 1 1 |
| FW | 99 Tete Yengi (23) | 6 | 1 | - |
| FW | 9 Syota Hujio (25) | 6 | 0 | - |
| FW | 20 Takuma Nishimura (30) | 3 | 0 | - |
| MF | 31 Neta Lavi (30) | 7 | 0 | - |
| MF | 10 Nasangho (30) | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 7 Yuki Soma (29) | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| MF | 23 Ryohei Shirasaki (33) | 7 | 0 | - |
| MF | 16 Hiroyuki Mae (31) | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 18 Hokuto Shimoda (35) | 3 | 0 | - |
| MF | 8 Keiya Sento (32) | 3 | 0 | - |
| MF | 11 Maseuyama Asahi (29) | 3 | 0 | - |
| DF | 19 Nakayama Yuta (29) | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| DF | 26 Kotaro Hayashi (26) | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 50 Daihachi Okamura (29) | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 3 Gen Shoji (34) | 7 | 1 | - |
| DF | 88 Hotaka Nakamura (29) | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 5 Ibrahim Dresevic (29) | 4 | 0 | - |
| GK | 1 Kosei Tani (26) | 8 | 0 | - |
Kashiwa Reysol
21 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 20 Segawa Yuseuke (32) | 8 | 4 | - |
| FW | 9 Hosoya Mao (25) | 8 | 1 | - |
| FW | 15 Komi Yota (24) | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 18 Gakita Yuki (29) | 6 | 1 | - |
| FW | 14 Okubo Domoaki (28) | 1 | 0 | - |
| MF | 8 Goijeumi Yosio (29) | 8 | 1 | 2 |
| MF | 24 Tojiro Gubo (27) | 7 | 1 | - |
| MF | 28 Dosimasachiro | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 21 Gonisi Yudai (28) Inactive | 4 | 0 | - |
| MF | 40 Harakawa Riki (33) | 2 | 0 | - |
| MF | 16 Yuruki Goya (31) | 2 | 0 | - |
| MF | 19 Nakama Hayato (34) | 2 | 0 | - |
| DF | 4 Goga Taiyo (28) | 8 | 0 | - |
| DF | 2 Misseumaru Hiromu (33) | 7 | 0 | - |
| DF | 88 Seiya Baba (25) | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 26 Seugioka Daiki (28) | 6 | 0 | - |
| DF | 42 Wataru Harada (30) Injured | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 13 Inukai Tomoya (33) | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 22 Noda Hiroki (29) | 1 | 0 | - |
| GK | 25 Kojima Ryoseuke (29) | 7 | 0 | - |
| GK | 29 Nagai Gengo (23) | 1 | 0 | - |
Detailed Analysis
Match Outlook
Head-to-head history favors Kashiwa, who are unbeaten against Machida, including an away win.
Team Status
Key attacking players like Matheus Savio and Yuki Muto provide Kashiwa with a more reliable goal threat.
Stored match probabilities
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
Home win29.0%
Draw35.0%
Away win36.0%
Stored forecast agreement details
Home Win0%
Draw33%
Away Win66%
🔎 Forecast Agreement
2 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick. Confidence is limited — treat this match as uncertain.
Show each forecast
ChatGPT · Forecast 1
65%Prediction: Kashiwa Reysol Win
Score: 1 - 2
- Kashiwa Reysol have a stronger league position and a better away record than Machida Zelvia's home record.
- Head-to-head history favors Kashiwa, who are unbeaten against Machida, including an away win.
- Key attacking players like Matheus Savio and Yuki Muto provide Kashiwa with a more reliable goal threat.
Read full reasoning
Based on available 2024 data, Kashiwa Reysol have shown more consistency and offensive capability than Machida Zelvia, who are still acclimating to top-flight football. While Machida are competitive at home, Kashiwa’s experience and slightly superior squad depth give them a narrow edge. However, the lack of up-to-date 2026 data reduces confidence, so probabilities are moderate rather than high, and a draw remains a reasonable possibility.
Claude · Forecast 2
62%Prediction: Kashiwa Reysol Win
Score: 1 - 2
- Kashiwa's away record (2W-3D-3L) is more balanced than Machida's home struggles suggest they can compete
- Head-to-head history favors Kashiwa with 1 win and 1 draw, including a 2-0 victory in recent J1 matchup
- Machida's home advantage offset by Kashiwa's stronger goal-scoring rate (1.41 vs 1.23 GPG) and disciplined defense
- Kashiwa's Brazilian playmaker Matheus Savio provides creative edge over Machida's young squad
Read full reasoning
Kashiwa Reysol emerges as the slight favorite despite playing away from home. Critically, Kashiwa's recent head-to-head advantage—including a commanding 2-0 victory—suggests they have Machida's tactical vulnerabilities figured out. While Machida benefits from home advantage with a respectable 4W-2D-2L home record, their away form (2W-3D-4L) reveals structural defensive issues that Kashiwa can exploit. Kashiwa's experience in the J1 League and balanced squad composition—particularly the goal-scoring prowess of Savio—gives them an edge. However, Machida's fighting spirit and defensive solidity keep this competitive. A narrow away victory for Kashiwa is the most likely outcome.
Gemini · Forecast 3
45%Prediction: Draw
Score: 1 - 1
- Machida Zelvia's high-tempo pressing style under Go Kuroda versus Kashiwa's tactical discipline.
- Kashiwa Reysol's historical edge and reliance on creative playmaker Matheus Savio.
- Machida's strong home defensive record against Kashiwa's tendency to settle for away draws.
Read full reasoning
Machida Zelvia has established itself as a formidable opponent at home since their rise to the J1 League, utilizing a high-pressing system to disrupt established clubs. Their defensive organization is a core strength, making them difficult to break down. However, their offensive output often fluctuates when facing teams that prioritize low-block stability, which has been a hallmark of the Kashiwa Reysol defensive unit. Kashiwa Reysol brings a more balanced tactical approach, often dictated by the tempo-setting play of their midfield. While they have historically held the upper hand in head-to-head matchups, their recent trends show a difficulty in converting possession into away wins. They are disciplined enough to avoid defeat but frequently lack the clinical finishing required to secure all three points on the road. Given the stylistic clash between Machida's intensity and Kashiwa's composure, a stalemate is the most probable outcome. Both teams prioritize defensive structure, likely resulting in a low-scoring affair.