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Incheon

Home

Final
1 - 1

Draw

2026-09-20 09:00

✈️

Daejeon

Away

📋 30 ROUND 🗓 2026

Korean market · Odds & records

🏟 인천 축구전용경기장 ● Incheon 2025 · 1st · 23W 9D 7L (GD +36) ● Daejeon 2025 · 3rd · 15W 10D 8L (GD +7)

🎯 Tokti AI Prediction

Prediction

Draw

Confidence

59%

How strongly our analysis backs this pick

Predicted Score

1 - 1

Key Analysis Points

  • ✓ Both teams have struggled for consistency, with similar records and goal differences.
  • ✓ Recent head-to-head results show balanced outcomes, including a recent 1-1 draw.
  • ✓ Neither side boasts a significant advantage in form or squad strength as of the latest data.
Recommended Bets: Under 2.5 (54%)

📊 Win Probability

Incheon
36.5%
38.0%
25.5%
Daejeon
Home 36.5%
Draw 38.0%
Away 25.5%

🧭 Market Signals

What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved

Where the money went

Payout 89.0%
14.0%
56.9%
29.1%
Home 14.0% Draw 56.9% Away 29.1%

Odds movement (open → now)

Home
2.60 → 2.70
▲ 0.10
Draw
3.15 → 3.00
▼ 0.15
Away
2.37 → 2.38
▲ 0.01

Falling odds mean money moved onto that side.

Most likely scorelines

1-2
9.11%
0-2
8.08%
1-3
7.97%
1-1
7.18%
0-3
6.95%

Next fixtures

Incheon United
09/27 A Gangwon FC K League 1
10/09 H Pohang Steelers K League 1
10/18 A Gangwon FC K League 1
Daejeon Citizen
10/09 H Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors K League 1
10/13 A Shanghai Port FC ACLE
10/18 H Gwangju FC K League 1

Compared across 24 bookmakers.

🔴

Too Risky

Max probability 38.0% · Gap 1.5%p

RED
Analysis data as of 2026-09-24 23:06

Records as of this match, not the teams' current form.

📋 Last 5 Matches

Analysis Data · Recent results

Incheon
L W L D L
View 5 recent results
2026-09-12 K League 1
Ulsan HD 2 : 1 Incheon
2026-09-08 K League 1
Incheon 2 : 1 Bucheon FC 1995
2026-09-05 K League 1
Seoul 1 : 0 Incheon
2026-08-30 K League 1
Incheon 1 : 1 Jeonbuk
2026-08-26 K League 1
Anyang 2 : 1 Incheon
Daejeon
D W W L W
View 5 recent results
2026-09-12 K League 1
Daejeon 2 : 2 Pohang
2026-09-09 K League 1
Daejeon 3 : 2 Anyang
2026-09-05 K League 1
Bucheon FC 1995 0 : 5 Daejeon
2026-08-30 K League 1
Jeju SK 3 : 1 Daejeon
2026-08-26 K League 1
Daejeon 2 : 1 Ulsan HD

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Analysis Data · Recent meetings

Total

10

Home Wins

4

Draws

3

Away Wins

3

Average total goals 3.0

Recent matches

2026-05-05 K League 1
Daejeon 0 - 0 Incheon
Draw
2026-03-18 K League 1
Incheon 1 - 3 Daejeon
Away team won
2024-11-10 K League 1
Incheon 1 - 2 Daejeon
Away team won
2024-08-17 K League 1
Daejeon 2 - 1 Incheon
Away team won
2024-05-18 K League 1
Daejeon 0 - 1 Incheon
Home team won

Last meeting: 2026-05-05 (0-0)

📊 Season Summary

Analysis Data · Current season stats

Incheon

Rank 8
Games played 28
Record 9W · 8D · 11L
Standing points 35
Standing points / match 1.25
Goals for / against 35 / 35
Avg goals scored / allowed 1.25 / 1.25

Daejeon

Rank 6
Games played 29
Record 10W · 9D · 10L
Standing points 39
Standing points / match 1.34
Goals for / against 45 / 36
Avg goals scored / allowed 1.55 / 1.24

🎯 Betting Options

All available bet types with odds

The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.

Match Winner 1 source #3450 Odds & records

Home

2.7

Draw

3.0

Away

2.38

Match Winner 2 sources #3455 Odds & records

Home

3.3

34.2%

Draw

1.95

Away

3.0

37.5%

More metrics

🕸️ Team Style Comparison

Analysis Data · 5 source indices

Incheon
GOAL 40 ATTACK 33 RS 42 RA 54 DEFENSE 70
Daejeon
GOAL 55 ATTACK 51 RS 83 RA 46 DEFENSE 65

📈 Recent Form Trend

Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance

Incheon
↓ -3.09

Sharp decline

Daejeon
↑ 2.87

Strong upward trend

⚖️ Performance Metrics

Overall · home/away records · recent form

Overall

1.25 Standing points / match 1.34
1.25 Avg goals scored 1.55
1.25 Avg goals allowed 1.24

Home/Away records

1.29 Standing points / match 1.5
1.14 Avg goals scored 1.86
1.07 Avg goals allowed 1.21

Recent

1.13 Standing points / match 2
1.25 Avg goals scored 2.5
1.38 Avg goals allowed 1.63

🔥 Streaks

Analysis Data · Current form indicators

Incheon

Overall

Lose 1

Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 6

At Home

Win 1 Unbeaten 5

Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 5

Away

Lose 3

Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 6

Daejeon

Overall

Unbeaten 3 Winless 1

Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 4

At Home

Unbeaten 7 Winless 1

Best: Win 4 · Unbeaten 7

Away

Win 1

Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 3

📚 Season History

Rank and record by season

Incheon

Season Comp. Rank Record Standing points / win% / GD Avg goals scored / allowed
2025 K League 2 #1 23W 9D 7L +36 GD 1.69 / 0.77
2024 K League 1 #12 7W 11D 15L -12 GD 0.97 / 1.33
2023 K League 1 #6 12W 12D 9L +1 GD 1.15 / 1.12
2022 K League 1 #4 12W 13D 8L 49 pts +6 GD 1.24 / 1.06
2021 K League 1 #8 11W 7D 15L 40 pts -9 GD 1.0 / 1.27

Daejeon

Season Comp. Rank Record Standing points / win% / GD Avg goals scored / allowed
2025 K League 1 #3 15W 10D 8L +7 GD 1.45 / 1.24
2024 K League 1 #11 8W 11D 14L -9 GD 1.09 / 1.36
2023 K League 1 #8 11W 12D 10L -3 GD 1.48 / 1.58
2022 K League 2 #2 21W 11D 8L 74 pts +25 GD 1.75 / 1.13
2021 K League 2 #3 17W 7D 12L 58 pts +5 GD 1.47 / 1.33

👥 Squads

Registered players with season stats

Incheon

19 players
View squad
Pos Player GP Goals Cards
FW 11 Gerso Fernandes (35) 5 0 -
FW 72 Chung-Yong Lee (38) 5 0 1
FW 9 Stefan Mugosa (34) 5 4 -
FW 10 Dong-Ryul Lee (26) 4 0 -
FW 23 Jeongchiin (29) 4 0 2
FW 99 Morgan Ferrier (32) 2 0 1
FW 77 Bakseungho (23) 2 0 -
FW 19 Bakhomin (25) 1 0 -
MF 7 Ohuseong (27) 5 1 -
MF 5 Imyeongju (36) 5 0 -
MF 15 Jae-Min Seo (23) 5 1 -
MF 8 Ikereu Undabarena (31) 3 0 1
MF 99 Jonghwan Yun (53) 0 0 -
DF 39 Gimmyeongseon (26) 5 0 1
DF 2 Ibija (31) 5 0 3
DF 32 Ju-Yong Lee (34) 5 0 -
DF 4 Gimgeonhwi (24) 4 0 1
DF 27 Yeoseungwon (26) 2 0 -
GK 1 Dong-Heon Kim (29) 5 0 -

Daejeon

22 players
View squad
Pos Player GP Goals Cards
FW 17 Guseutapeu Ruteubihison (33) 5 0 -
FW 9 Diogo Ruiseu (30) 5 1 1
FW 7 Isida Masatosi (31) 3 1 -
FW 11 Eomwonsang (26) 3 1 -
FW 99 Yuganghyeon 2 0 -
MF 10 Jumingyu (36) 5 0 -
MF 8 Pereiraui Biktoreu Bopseu (26) 5 0 1
MF 30 Gimbongsu (27) 5 0 1
MF 19 Seojinsu (26) 4 2 -
MF 6 Gangyunseong (29) 3 0 -
MF 70 Gimhyeonuk (31) 2 0 -
MF 20 Ihyeonsik (30) 1 0 -
DF 33 Gimmunhwan (31) 5 0 1
DF 77 Joao Victor Lima Ferreira (27) 5 0 1
DF 45 Hachangrae (32) 4 1 2
DF 44 Isunmin (32) 4 0 1
DF 3 Gimmindeok (30) 3 0 1
DF 2 Bakgyuhyeon 2 0 -
DF 23 Seoyeongjae (31) 2 0 -
DF 16 Imyeongjae (33) 1 0 -
DF 98 Anton Keuribocheukeu (28) 1 0 -
GK 1 Ichanggeun (33) 5 0 -

Detailed Analysis

Key Analysis

Both teams have struggled for consistency, with similar records and goal differences.

Match Outlook

Recent head-to-head results show balanced outcomes, including a recent 1-1 draw.

Team Status

Neither side boasts a significant advantage in form or squad strength as of the latest data.

Stored match probabilities

Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.

Home win36.0%
Draw38.0%
Away win26.0%
Stored forecast agreement details
Home Win33%
Draw66%
Away Win0%

🔎 Forecast Agreement

2 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick. Confidence is limited — treat this match as uncertain.

Show each forecast

ChatGPT · Forecast 1

62%

Prediction: Draw

Score: 1 - 1

  • Both teams have struggled for consistency, with similar records and goal differences.
  • Recent head-to-head results show balanced outcomes, including a recent 1-1 draw.
  • Neither side boasts a significant advantage in form or squad strength as of the latest data.
Read full reasoning

Incheon United and Daejeon Hana Citizen are closely matched, both sitting mid-table with comparable attacking and defensive records. Incheon have shown slightly better home form but remain inconsistent, while Daejeon are more productive in attack yet defensively vulnerable. Recent meetings have been even, and neither team is missing key players as of the last update. Given these factors, a draw appears the most probable outcome, with both sides likely to score but unable to secure a decisive advantage.

Claude · Forecast 2

62%

Prediction: Draw

Score: 1 - 1

  • Both teams in similar mid-table form with inconsistent results - Incheon 5W/6D/6L vs Daejeon 5W/5D/7L
  • Head-to-head history shows competitive matches with recent draw (1-1 in April 2024) and mixed results favoring slight Daejeon advantage
  • Defensive vulnerabilities for both sides - Incheon conceding 1.35 goals/game, Daejeon 1.47 goals/game suggests open attacking play
  • Incheon stronger at home with tighter defense, but Daejeon manages goals in away games - balanced encounter likely
Read full reasoning

This fixture presents a classic mid-table clash between two evenly matched sides. Incheon United (21 pts) and Daejeon Hana Citizen (20 pts) are separated by just one point, reflecting their comparable quality. Recent form shows both struggling with consistency - Incheon with only 1 win in last 5 games but performing better defensively at home, while Daejeon has marginally better goal output (1.12 vs 1.18 per game) but weaker defense. The head-to-head record is instructive: their most recent meeting was a 1-1 draw, and historically these teams produce competitive, closely-fought contests. With both squads having defensive frailties (combined 48 goals conceded in 17 games), expect open play but neither team sufficiently dominant to impose a comfortable victory. Incheon's home advantage and tighter home defense slightly elevate their prospects, but Daejeon's attacking consistency and away scoring record suggest they'll trouble the hosts. A draw represents the most probable outcome given the tactical equilibrium and statistical parity.

Gemini · Forecast 3

55%

Prediction: Incheon Win

Score: 2 - 1

  • Incheon's historical defensive resilience at home vs Daejeon's leaky away record.
  • Stefan Mugosa's consistent goal-scoring threat remains the centerpiece of Incheon's attack.
  • Daejeon's tendency to concede late goals aligns with Incheon's tactical shift toward late-game pressure.
Read full reasoning

Incheon United enters this fixture with a slight home-field advantage, which has historically been a stabilizing factor for a team that often struggles with consistency. Their tactical reliance on a disciplined mid-block and the clinical nature of Stefan Mugosa gives them an edge over a Daejeon side that, while offensively productive, lacks the defensive discipline to keep clean sheets on the road. Incheon's recent focus on shoring up the midfield should help neutralize Daejeon's creative sparks in transition. Daejeon Hana Citizen has shown they can compete with mid-table rivals, but their higher goals-conceded average (1.47) suggests they will struggle to contain Incheon's wingers over 90 minutes. While Daejeon often finds the scoresheet, their fitness and depth have been questioned in late-game scenarios. Expect a tight contest where Incheon's superior organizational structure at home allows them to secure a narrow victory, likely decided in the final twenty minutes.

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