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⚾ Baseball KBO
🏠

SSG Landers

Home

Cancelled

VS

Match Time

2026-09-25

07:00

✈️

Samsung Lions

Away

Korean market · Odds & records

2026 / 114 · #4426 · Match Winner → 2026 / 114 · #4427 · Match Winner → 2026 / 114 · #4428 · Handicap (2.5) 2.5 → 2026 / 114 · #4429 · Over/Under (11.5) 11.5 → 2026 / 114 · #4430 · Total Sum → 2026 / 114 · #4431 · Match Winner → 2026 / 114 · #4432 · Handicap (1.5) 1.5 → 2026 / 114 · #4433 · Over/Under (6.5) 6.5 →
● SSG Landers 2025 · 3rd · 75W 4D 65L (RD +33) ● Samsung Lions 2025 · 4th · 74W 2D 68L (RD +128)

🎯 Tokti AI Prediction

Prediction

SSG Landers Win

Confidence

65%

How strongly our analysis backs this pick

Predicted Score

6 - 4

Key Analysis Points

  • ✓ SSG Landers have a better overall record and run differential compared to Samsung Lions.
  • ✓ Recent head-to-head history favors SSG Landers, especially at home.
  • ✓ SSG Landers show stronger key player performances and fewer errors per game.
Recommended Bets: Home Win (65%) Over 2.5 (60%)

📊 Win / Loss Probability

SSG Landers
64.9%
35.1%
Samsung Lions
Home 64.9%
Away 35.1%

💰 EV Analysis

Overround: 5.6%
Outcome Odds Market Prob AI Prob EV
SSG Landers Win 2.32 40.8% 64.9% +50.6%
Samsung Lions Win 1.6 59.2% 35.1% -43.8%
🔥 Value Bet Detected
SSG Landers Win @ 2.32 High Odds
EV +50.6% Kelly 38.3%

📊 High Odds Investment: Value bets with odds ≥ 2.0 have lower hit rates but positive expected returns over time. The math works when you bet consistently — even hitting 1 out of 3 at 4.0x odds yields profit. Never bet more than Kelly suggests. Patience and bankroll discipline are key.

📈 Historical results at this odds range
Home odds 2.30~2.39 Away Win 61.9% · Home Win 37.6% · Draw 0.5% (1,022 matches, 2009~2026)
Away odds 1.60~1.69 Away Win 51.1% · Home Win 48.8% · Draw 0.1% (6,428 matches, 2009~2026)

🧭 Market Signals

What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved

Where the money went

Payout 88.0%
42.4%
57.6%
Home 42.4% Away 57.6%

Most likely scorelines

5-4
3.57%
6-5
3.25%
6-4
3.16%
4-5
3.08%
5-6
2.8%

Next fixtures

SSG Landers
09/29 H LG Twins KBO
09/30 H LG Twins KBO
10/01 H LG Twins KBO
Samsung Lions
09/29 H Hanwha Eagles KBO
09/30 H Hanwha Eagles KBO
10/01 H Hanwha Eagles KBO

Compared across 22 bookmakers.

🟢

Safe Bet

Max probability 64.9% · Gap 29.8%p

GREEN

Strategy: Clear favorite detected. Consider the main market or safe derivative options below for steady compound returns.

Analysis data as of 2026-09-26 15:08

Records as of this match, not the teams' current form.

📋 Last 5 Matches

Analysis Data · Recent results

SSG Landers
W W W L W
View 5 recent results
2026-09-17 KBO
NC Dinos 1 : 2 SSG Landers
2026-09-16 KBO
Lotte Giants 1 : 4 SSG Landers
2026-09-15 KBO
SSG Landers 6 : 3 KIA Tigers
2026-09-11 KBO
KIA Tigers 5 : 2 SSG Landers
2026-09-10 KBO
SSG Landers 4 : 3 Hanwha Eagles
Samsung Lions
L W L L W
View 5 recent results
2026-09-16 KBO
Doosan Bears 3 : 1 Samsung Lions
2026-09-15 KBO
Samsung Lions 7 : 3 Lotte Giants
2026-09-13 KBO
Samsung Lions 5 : 13 LG Twins
2026-09-12 KBO
Samsung Lions 3 : 4 LG Twins
2026-09-11 KBO
Samsung Lions 6 : 4 Kiwoom Heroes

⚔️ Head-to-Head

Analysis Data · Recent meetings

Total

10

Home Wins

3

Draws

0

Away Wins

7

Average total runs 13.7

Recent matches

2026-08-20 KBO
Samsung Lions 4 - 6 SSG Landers
Home team won
2026-08-19 KBO
Samsung Lions 18 - 4 SSG Landers
Away team won
2026-08-18 KBO
Samsung Lions 4 - 5 SSG Landers
Home team won
2026-07-05 KBO
SSG Landers 3 - 13 Samsung Lions
Away team won
2026-07-04 KBO
SSG Landers 7 - 13 Samsung Lions
Away team won

Last meeting: 2026-08-20 (4-6)

📊 Season Summary

Analysis Data · Current season stats

SSG Landers

Rank 7
Games played 127
Record 56W · 6D · 65L
Runs scored / allowed 637 / 713
Avg runs scored / allowed 5.02 / 5.61
Win percentage 46.3%

Samsung Lions

Rank 2
Games played 126
Record 74W · 4D · 48L
Runs scored / allowed 729 / 560
Avg runs scored / allowed 5.79 / 4.44
Win percentage 60.7%

🎯 Betting Options

All available bet types with odds

The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.

Match Winner 1 source

Home

2.32

Closing

Away

1.6

Closing

Match Winner 1 source #4426 Odds & records

Home

2.19

Away

1.47

Match Winner 1 source #4427 Odds & records

Win

3.25

Within 1

3.6

Loss

1.77

Match Winner 2 sources #4431 Odds & records

Home

2.35

40.2%

Draw

7.2

Away

1.71

59.8%

More metrics

Team Style Comparison

Baseball · Season performance

SSG Landers

127 games played

Samsung Lions

126 games played

Runs scored / game

Home5.02
Away5.79

Runs allowed / game

Home5.61
Away4.44

Run differential / game

Home-0.59
Away+1.35

Win percentage

Home46.3%
Away60.7%

Scoring and differential: higher is better. Runs allowed: lower is better. Differential = scored minus allowed per game.

— means the statistic is unavailable. These are season figures, not a prediction.

📈 Recent Form Trend

Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance

SSG Landers
↑ 3.62

Strong upward trend

Samsung Lions
↓ -0.86

Slight decline

⚖️ Performance Metrics

Overall · home/away records · recent form

Overall

46.3% Win percentage 60.7%
5.02 Avg runs scored 5.79
5.61 Avg runs allowed 4.44

Home/Away records

49.1% Win percentage 61.0%
5.02 Avg runs scored 5.92
5.51 Avg runs allowed 4.11

Recent

62.5% Win percentage 50.0%
3.63 Avg runs scored 4.75
4 Avg runs allowed 4.63

📚 Season History

Rank and record by season

SSG Landers

Season Comp. Rank Record Standing points / win% / RD Avg runs scored / allowed
2025 KBO #3 75W 4D 65L 53.6% +33 RD 4.23 / 4.0
2024 KBO #6 72W 2D 71L 50.3% -59 RD 5.23 / 5.64
2023 KBO #3 76W 3D 65L 53.8% -40 RD 4.57 / 4.85
2022 KBO #1 88W 4D 52L 62.5% +98 RD 5.0 / 4.32
2021 KBO #6 66W 14D 64L 50.7% +14 RD 5.24 / 5.15

Samsung Lions

Season Comp. Rank Record Standing points / win% / RD Avg runs scored / allowed
2025 KBO #4 74W 2D 68L 52.1% +128 RD 5.38 / 4.49
2024 KBO #2 78W 2D 64L 54.9% +51 RD 5.35 / 4.99
2023 KBO #8 61W 1D 82L 42.7% -92 RD 4.42 / 5.06
2022 KBO #7 66W 2D 76L 46.5% -32 RD 4.6 / 4.83
2021 KBO #2 76W 9D 59L 55.9% +54 RD 4.94 / 4.57

Detailed Analysis

Key Analysis

SSG Landers have a better overall record and run differential compared to Samsung Lions.

Match Outlook

Recent head-to-head history favors SSG Landers, especially at home.

Team Status

SSG Landers show stronger key player performances and fewer errors per game.

Stored match probabilities

Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.

Home win65.0%
Away win35.0%
Stored forecast agreement details
Home Win100%
Draw0%
Away Win0%

🔎 Forecast Agreement

3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.

Show each forecast

ChatGPT · Forecast 1

70%

Prediction: SSG Landers Win

Score: 6 - 4

  • SSG Landers have a better overall record and run differential compared to Samsung Lions.
  • Recent head-to-head history favors SSG Landers, especially at home.
  • SSG Landers show stronger key player performances and fewer errors per game.
Read full reasoning

Based on data from June 2024, SSG Landers have consistently outperformed Samsung Lions in most statistical categories, including runs per game, home record, and pitching ERA. Their superior head-to-head record and stronger home advantage further increase their likelihood of winning. While both teams show some inconsistency, SSG's offensive depth and stable lineup give them a clear edge. Confidence is moderate due to data being over a year old, so updating closer to match day is recommended.

Claude · Forecast 2

62%

Prediction: SSG Landers Win

Score: 5 - 3

  • SSG Landers have superior head-to-head record (14-9) over Samsung Lions in recent years with strong home performance
  • SSG Landers maintain better offensive metrics (5.21 runs/game vs 4.75) and pitching (4.09 ERA vs 4.33), giving them a statistical edge
  • Samsung Lions struggle away from home (16-18 record) while SSG has solid home record (20-14), favoring the home team advantage
  • Historical consistency shows SSG winning low-scoring, tightly contested games - expected tight match with slight SSG edge
Read full reasoning

Based on available 2024 data, SSG Landers (home) are favored over Samsung Lions (away). SSG holds a clear edge in head-to-head matchups (14-9 record since 2022), offensive production (5.21 vs 4.75 runs/game), and team ERA (4.09 vs 4.33). More importantly, SSG's home record (20-14) contrasts with Samsung's poor away record (16-18), creating a significant venue advantage. While Samsung showed offensive flashes (Pirela, Kim Ji-chan), SSG's veteran leadership (Choi Jeong, Heredia) and ace pitcher Kim Kwang-hyun provide consistent reliability. Historical patterns suggest SSG typically wins tight contests, making a 5-3 scoreline reasonable for their defensive-minded, pitching-focused approach.

Gemini · Forecast 3

65%

Prediction: SSG Landers Win

Score: 6 - 4

  • SSG's superior run differential (+18) compared to Samsung's struggling margin (-21).
  • Historical head-to-head dominance by SSG Landers with a 14-9 record over the last three seasons.
  • Samsung Lions' vulnerability on the road and lower offensive production per game (4.75 vs 5.21).
Read full reasoning

SSG Landers enter this matchup as the statistically superior side, holding a significant advantage in run differential and overall win percentage. Their offensive depth, led by veteran slugger Choi Jeong and Guillermo Heredia, consistently produces over 5 runs per game, outperforming a Samsung Lions lineup that often struggles with run support. Furthermore, SSG's pitching staff maintains a healthier team ERA (4.09) compared to Samsung's (4.33), providing a more stable foundation for late-inning management. Samsung's road form remains a concern, as they have historically struggled to maintain consistency away from home. While Samsung's top-tier starters like Won Tae-in can keep games competitive, the SSG bullpen has shown better reliability in high-leverage situations. Given SSG's strong home record at Incheon and their historical head-to-head edge, they are the clear favorites to control the tempo and secure the win.

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