Key Analysis
Recent head-to-head meetings are balanced and often low-scoring draws.
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⚽ Football
LALIGA
Osasuna
Home
Final
1
-
1
Draw
2026-09-19 11:00
Rayo Vallecano
Away
📋
7 ROUND
🗓
2026/2027
🏆
SUMMRIZE
Korean market · Odds & records
🏟 엘 사다르
● Osasuna 2025/2026 · 17th · 11W 9D 18L (GD -6)
● Rayo Vallecano 2025/2026 · 8th · 12W 14D 12L (GD -3)
🎯 Prediction Accuracy
AI Predicted
Osasuna Win
Prediction Missed🎯 Tokti AI Prediction
Prediction
Osasuna Win
Confidence
56%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
1 - 0
Key Analysis Points
- ✓ Recent head-to-head meetings are balanced and often low-scoring draws.
- ✓ Osasuna are slightly stronger at home but inconsistent, while Rayo Vallecano struggle to score.
- ✓ Both clubs are in transition with potential squad and coaching changes looming.
Recommended Bets:
Home Win
(56%)
Under 2.5
(51%)
📊 Win Probability
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano
40.0%
35.0%
25.0%
Home 40.0%
Draw 35.0%
Away 25.0%
🧭 Market Signals
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Where the money went
Payout 88.0%
16.2%
61.6%
22.2%
Home 16.2%
Draw 61.6%
Away 22.2%
Odds movement (open → now)
Home
2.22
→
2.40
▲ 0.18
Draw
3.05
→
3.05
Away
2.80
→
2.55
▼ 0.25
Falling odds mean money moved onto that side.
Most likely scorelines
1-3
7.39%
1-2
7.03%
1-4
5.78%
2-3
5.69%
2-2
5.47%
Next fixtures
Osasuna
10/12
A
Real Betis
La Liga
10/18
H
Racing Santander
La Liga
10/26
A
Sevilla
La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
10/10
H
Athletic Bilbao
La Liga
10/20
A
Getafe
La Liga
10/26
H
Elche
La Liga
Compared across 24 bookmakers.
🔴
RED
Too Risky
Max probability 40.0% · Gap 5.0%p
Analysis data as of 2026-09-24 23:06
Records as of this match, not the teams' current form.
📋 Last 5 Matches
Analysis Data · Recent results
Osasuna
L
W
W
D
L
View 5 recent results
2026-09-07
La Liga
Alaves
5 : 2
Osasuna
2026-09-01
La Liga
Osasuna
1 : 0
Getafe
2026-08-28
La Liga
Celta Vigo
1 : 2
Osasuna
2026-08-25
La Liga
Osasuna
0 : 0
Levante
2026-05-24
La Liga
Getafe
1 : 0
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano
W
L
D
L
L
View 5 recent results
2026-09-06
La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
3 : 2
Racing Santander
2026-09-01
La Liga
Barcelona
5 : 2
Rayo Vallecano
2026-08-21
La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
1 : 1
Alaves
2026-08-16
La Liga
Sevilla
2 : 1
Rayo Vallecano
2026-05-28
UECL
Crystal Palace
1 : 0
Rayo Vallecano
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
6
Draws
1
Away Wins
3
Average total goals
2.6
Recent matches
2026-01-24
La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
1 - 3
Osasuna
Home team won
2025-09-15
La Liga
Osasuna
2 - 0
Rayo Vallecano
Home team won
2025-01-20
La Liga
Osasuna
1 - 1
Rayo Vallecano
Draw
2024-09-17
La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
3 - 1
Osasuna
Away team won
2024-04-20
La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
2 - 1
Osasuna
Away team won
Last meeting: 2026-01-24 (1-3)
📊 Season Summary
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Osasuna
Rank
8
Games played
4
Record
2W · 1D · 1L
Standing points
7
Standing points / match
1.75
Goals for / against
5 / 6
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.25 / 1.5
Rayo Vallecano
Rank
14
Games played
4
Record
1W · 1D · 2L
Standing points
4
Standing points / match
1.0
Goals for / against
7 / 10
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.75 / 2.5
🎯 Betting Options
All available bet types with odds
The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
More metrics
🕸️ Team Style Comparison
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Osasuna
GOAL
68
ATTACK
27
RS
42
RA
50
DEFENSE
56
Rayo Vallecano
GOAL
77
ATTACK
51
RS
58
RA
17
DEFENSE
45
📈 Recent Form Trend
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Osasuna
↓
-6.78
Sharp decline
Rayo Vallecano
↑
0.76
Slight improvement
⚖️ Performance Metrics
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
1.75
Standing points / match
1
1.25
Avg goals scored
1.75
1.5
Avg goals allowed
2.5
Home/Away records
2
Standing points / match
0
0.5
Avg goals scored
1.5
0
Avg goals allowed
3.5
Recent
1.75
Standing points / match
1
1.25
Avg goals scored
1.75
1.5
Avg goals allowed
2.5
🔥 Streaks
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Osasuna
Overall
Lose 1
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 3
At Home
Win 1
Unbeaten 2
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
Away
Lose 1
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Rayo Vallecano
Overall
Win 1
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
At Home
Win 1
Unbeaten 2
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
Away
Lose 2
📚 Season History
Rank and record by season
Osasuna
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | La Liga | #17 | 11W 9D 18L | -6 GD | 1.16 / 1.32 |
| 2024/2025 | La Liga | #9 | 12W 16D 10L | -4 GD | 1.26 / 1.37 |
| 2023/2024 | La Liga | #11 | 12W 9D 17L | -11 GD | 1.18 / 1.47 |
| 2022/2023 | La Liga | #7 | 15W 8D 15L | 53 pts -5 GD | 0.97 / 1.11 |
| 2021/2022 | La Liga | #10 | 12W 11D 15L | 47 pts -14 GD | 0.97 / 1.34 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | La Liga | #8 | 12W 14D 12L | -3 GD | 1.08 / 1.16 |
| 2024/2025 | La Liga | #8 | 13W 13D 12L | -4 GD | 1.08 / 1.18 |
| 2023/2024 | La Liga | #17 | 8W 14D 16L | -19 GD | 0.76 / 1.26 |
| 2022/2023 | La Liga | #11 | 13W 10D 15L | 49 pts -8 GD | 1.18 / 1.39 |
| 2021/2022 | La Liga | #12 | 11W 9D 18L | 42 pts -11 GD | 1.03 / 1.32 |
👥 Squads
Registered players with season stats
Osasuna
21 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 21 Victor Munyoseu (56) | 29 | 5 | 3 |
| FW | 17 Ante Budimir (35) | 28 | 14 | 1 |
| FW | 9 Raul (26) | 27 | 5 | 1 1 |
| FW | 20 Habiereu Galran (32) | 12 | 0 | 2 |
| FW | 18 Raul Moro (24) | 7 | 0 | - |
| FW | 2 Iker Benito (56) Knee Injury31.08.2026 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 7 Jon Moncayola (28) | 27 | 0 | 7 |
| MF | 14 Rubén García (33) | 26 | 2 | 5 |
| MF | 6 Rukaseu Toro (32) | 26 | 0 | 6 |
| MF | 10 Aimar Oroz (26) | 22 | 0 | 5 |
| MF | 16 Moiseseu Gomeseu (32) | 20 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 11 Kike Barja (29) | 19 | 1 | 3 |
| MF | 8 Iker Muñoz (24) | 13 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 24 Alejandro Catena (32) | 27 | 2 | 8 1 |
| DF | 5 Jorge Herrando (25) | 24 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 23 Abel Bretones (26) | 22 | 1 | 5 1 |
| DF | 19 Balrentang Rojie (30) | 22 | 0 | 5 1 |
| DF | 22 Flavien Boyomo (25) | 22 | 1 | 4 |
| DF | 3 Huan Keurujeu (34) | 14 | 0 | - |
| GK | 1 Sergio Herrera (33) | 29 | 0 | 3 |
| GK | 13 Aitor Fernández (35) | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Rayo Vallecano
25 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 19 Horeuhe Deu Peurutoseu (29) | 27 | 10 | 3 |
| FW | 9 Alexandre Alemao (28) | 17 | 1 | 1 |
| FW | 10 Sereuhio Kamelro (25) | 14 | 0 | 2 1 |
| FW | 12 Akeuhoma Ilriaseu Ankle injury | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| FW | 8 Oseuka Teureho (38) | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 18 Albaro Gareusia (34) | 29 | 4 | 3 |
| MF | 7 Isi (32) | 28 | 3 | 9 |
| MF | 4 Pedeuro Diajeu (28) | 26 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 21 Peuransiseuko Pereseu (24) Inactive | 25 | 2 | 4 |
| MF | 23 Oseuka Balrentin (32) | 25 | 1 | 3 1 |
| MF | 17 Unai Ropejeu (31) | 21 | 0 | 6 1 |
| MF | 15 Jerareudeu Gumbau (32) | 21 | 0 | 4 |
| MF | 11 Raendi Eunteka (29) Inactive | 8 | 0 | - |
| MF | 14 Carlos Martin (24) Inactive | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 99 Inigo Perejeu (38) | 0 | 0 | - |
| DF | 24 Peulroriang Reyeune (35) | 29 | 0 | 4 |
| DF | 2 Andeurei Ratiu (28) | 26 | 0 | 7 |
| DF | 3 Pep Chabaria (28) | 25 | 1 | 6 1 |
| DF | 22 Alponso Eseupino (34) | 22 | 2 | 2 |
| DF | 6 Paedeo Siseu (32) | 21 | 2 | 5 2 |
| DF | 32 Nobel Mendy (22) | 18 | 2 | 6 2 |
| DF | 20 Iban Balriu (34) | 11 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 5 Ramoseu Machi (29) | 9 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 33 Bereutuuteu Jojeuhwa Inactive | 7 | 0 | - |
| GK | 13 Auguseuto Bataya (30) | 29 | 0 | 4 |
Detailed Analysis
Match Outlook
Osasuna are slightly stronger at home but inconsistent, while Rayo Vallecano struggle to score.
Team Status
Both clubs are in transition with potential squad and coaching changes looming.
Stored match probabilities
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
Home win40.0%
Draw35.0%
Away win25.0%
Stored forecast agreement details
Home Win66%
Draw33%
Away Win0%
🔎 Forecast Agreement
2 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick. Confidence is limited — treat this match as uncertain.
Show each forecast
ChatGPT · Forecast 1
60%Prediction: Draw
Score: 1 - 1
- Recent head-to-head meetings are balanced and often low-scoring draws.
- Osasuna are slightly stronger at home but inconsistent, while Rayo Vallecano struggle to score.
- Both clubs are in transition with potential squad and coaching changes looming.
Read full reasoning
Based on historical data up to June 2024, both teams are fairly matched, with Osasuna having a small home advantage but lacking consistency. Rayo Vallecano have difficulty scoring, especially away, but are defensively organized. Their recent encounters have been tight and low-scoring, suggesting neither side is likely to dominate. With both teams facing managerial and possible roster changes, this fixture projects as a closely fought draw, likely low on goals. The analysis strength is medium due to the time gap and potential changes before 2026.
Claude · Forecast 2
55%Prediction: Osasuna Win
Score: 1 - 0
- Osasuna has home advantage with stronger home record (W7 D4 L8 vs away W5 D5 L9)
- Recent head-to-head record shows Osasuna won 1-0 in Feb 2024 away fixture, suggesting capability to win this matchup
- Both teams average low-scoring matches; recent pattern suggests defensive-minded play with limited goals
- Osasuna's Ante Budimir (16 goals in 2023-24) provides attacking edge over Rayo's lower-scoring threat
- Managerial uncertainty at Osasuna post-Arrasate departure could impact early season cohesion
Read full reasoning
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano appears to be a tight low-scoring affair based on historical context and team statistics. Osasuna holds a marginal advantage due to home-field benefit and a superior goal-scoring record (1.18 vs 0.87 per game). Recent head-to-head meetings demonstrate extremely tight, defensive contests with several draws and 1-0 scorelines, reflecting both sides' mid-table, defensive-oriented setup. Osasuna's 2024 1-0 away win versus Rayo provides confidence for home advantage. However, Osasuna's managerial transition and Rayo's narrow relegation escape create uncertainty. The 55% confidence reflects the marginal nature of this prediction given both teams' inconsistency and typical low-scoring patterns between these sides.
Gemini · Forecast 3
55%Prediction: Osasuna Win
Score: 1 - 0
- Osasuna's historical home strength at El Sadar provides a significant psychological edge.
- Rayo Vallecano's chronic difficulty in converting chances, averaging less than one goal per game in recent seasons.
- Recent head-to-head history trends toward low-scoring outcomes and defensive stalemates.
Read full reasoning
Osasuna enters this fixture as the marginal favorite, primarily due to their historical resilience at El Sadar. Despite the significant managerial shift following Arrasate's departure, the squad's defensive identity tends to remain robust against bottom-half opposition. Rayo Vallecano, while capable of frustrating opponents with high-pressing sequences, has historically struggled with clinical finishing, finishing the 2023-24 campaign as one of the lowest-scoring sides in LALIGA. This lack of offensive punch often forces them into defensive shells during away fixtures. Tactically, this matchup is expected to be a cagey affair with limited clear-cut opportunities. Osasuna's ability to capitalize on set-pieces and crosses—areas where they have traditionally excelled—will likely be the difference-maker. Rayo will rely on midfield creativity to break lines, but unless they have upgraded their striking options by 2026, a narrow home victory is the most probable outcome.