Key Analysis
Both teams are in strong recent form with solid defensive records.
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⚽ Football
MLS
New York City
Home
Final
0
-
1
New York Red Bulls Win
2026-09-18 22:30
New York Red Bulls
Away
Korean market · Odds & records
🏟 양키 스타디움
● New York City 2025 · 5th · 17W 5D 12L (GD +6)
● New York Red Bulls 2025 · 10th · 12W 7D 15L (GD +1)
🎯 Prediction Accuracy
AI Predicted
New York City Win
Prediction Missed🎯 Tokti AI Prediction
Prediction
New York City Win
Confidence
57%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Key Analysis Points
- ✓ Both teams are in strong recent form with solid defensive records.
- ✓ Head-to-head history is close in recent years, with NYCFC slightly ahead but Red Bulls stronger all-time.
- ✓ Home advantage favors NYCFC, but Red Bulls' pressing style can unsettle them.
Recommended Bets:
Home Win
(57%)
Over 2.5
(52%)
📊 Win Probability
New York City
New York Red Bulls
37.0%
34.0%
29.0%
Home 37.0%
Draw 34.0%
Away 29.0%
🧭 Market Signals
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Where the money went
Payout 87.0%
46.7%
39.3%
13.9%
Home 46.7%
Draw 39.3%
Away 13.9%
Odds movement (open → now)
Home
1.71
→
1.77
▲ 0.06
Draw
3.70
→
3.75
▲ 0.05
Away
3.40
→
3.15
▼ 0.25
Falling odds mean money moved onto that side.
Most likely scorelines
0-0
34.84%
1-0
26.17%
0-1
10.76%
2-0
9.69%
1-1
7.9%
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Compared across 24 bookmakers.
🔴
RED
Too Risky
Max probability 37.0% · Gap 3.0%p
Analysis data as of 2026-09-24 23:06
Records as of this match, not the teams' current form.
📋 Last 5 Matches
Analysis Data · Recent results
New York City
L
D
D
D
L
View 5 recent results
2026-09-10
MLS
New York City
1 : 2
New England Revolution
2026-09-05
MLS
New York City
0 : 0
Nashville SC
2026-08-30
MLS
Toronto FC
1 : 1
New York City
2026-08-24
MLS
New England Revolution
1 : 1
New York City
2026-08-20
MLS
FC Cincinnati
2 : 1
New York City
New York Red Bulls
L
D
L
D
L
View 5 recent results
2026-09-10
MLS
Los Angeles FC
2 : 0
New York Red Bulls
2026-09-06
MLS
Seattle Sounders
0 : 0
New York Red Bulls
2026-08-30
MLS
New York Red Bulls
1 : 3
Philadelphia Union
2026-08-23
MLS
New York Red Bulls
1 : 1
Chicago Fire
2026-08-20
MLS
New York Red Bulls
0 : 1
Nashville SC
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
6
Draws
1
Away Wins
3
Average total goals
2.8
Recent matches
2026-05-17
MLS
New York Red Bulls
1 - 1
New York City
Draw
2026-04-30
Us Open Cup
Nyuyokredeubulseu
1 - 3
NyuyoksitiFC
Home team won
2025-09-28
MLS
New York Red Bulls
2 - 3
New York City
Home team won
2025-05-18
MLS
New York City
2 - 0
New York Red Bulls
Home team won
2024-11-24
MLS
New York City
0 - 2
New York Red Bulls
Away team won
Last meeting: 2026-05-17 (1-1)
📊 Season Summary
Analysis Data · Current season stats
New York City
Rank
18
Games played
24
Record
7W · 8D · 9L
Standing points
29
Standing points / match
1.21
Goals for / against
37 / 33
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.54 / 1.38
New York Red Bulls
Rank
25
Games played
24
Record
7W · 6D · 11L
Standing points
27
Standing points / match
1.13
Goals for / against
32 / 48
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.33 / 2.0
🎯 Betting Options
All available bet types with odds
The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
More metrics
🕸️ Team Style Comparison
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
New York City
GOAL
84
ATTACK
40
RS
42
RA
54
DEFENSE
61
New York Red Bulls
GOAL
46
ATTACK
30
RS
25
RA
46
DEFENSE
58
📈 Recent Form Trend
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
New York City
↓
-12.66
Sharp decline
New York Red Bulls
↓
-7.44
Sharp decline
⚖️ Performance Metrics
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
1.21
Standing points / match
1.13
1.54
Avg goals scored
1.33
1.38
Avg goals allowed
2
Home/Away records
1.23
Standing points / match
1
2
Avg goals scored
1.17
1.54
Avg goals allowed
2.08
Recent
0.88
Standing points / match
0.63
1.25
Avg goals scored
0.75
1.38
Avg goals allowed
1.63
🔥 Streaks
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
New York City
Overall
Lose 1
Winless 7
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 4
At Home
Lose 1
Winless 4
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 3
Away
Unbeaten 2
Winless 3
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
New York Red Bulls
Overall
Lose 1
Winless 6
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 4
At Home
Lose 1
Winless 3
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
Away
Lose 1
Winless 4
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 2
📚 Season History
Rank and record by season
New York City
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Major League Soccer | #5 | 17W 5D 12L | +6 GD | 1.47 / 1.29 |
| 2024 | Major League Soccer | #6 | 14W 8D 12L | +5 GD | 1.59 / 1.44 |
| 2023 | Major League Soccer | #11 | 9W 14D 11L | -4 GD | 1.03 / 1.15 |
| 2022 | Major League Soccer | #3 | 16W 7D 11L | 55 pts +16 GD | 1.68 / 1.21 |
| 2021 | Major League Soccer | #4 | 14W 9D 11L | 51 pts +20 GD | 1.65 / 1.06 |
New York Red Bulls
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Major League Soccer | #10 | 12W 7D 15L | +1 GD | 1.41 / 1.38 |
| 2024 | Major League Soccer | #7 | 11W 14D 9L | +5 GD | 1.62 / 1.47 |
| 2023 | Major League Soccer | #8 | 11W 10D 13L | -3 GD | 1.06 / 1.15 |
| 2022 | Major League Soccer | #4 | 15W 8D 11L | 53 pts +9 GD | 1.47 / 1.21 |
| 2021 | Major League Soccer | #7 | 13W 9D 12L | 48 pts +6 GD | 1.15 / 0.97 |
👥 Squads
Registered players with season stats
New York City
15 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 11 Talreseu Mageuno (24) | 5 | 1 | - |
| MF | 17 Haneseu Ulpeu (27) | 5 | 1 | - |
| MF | 10 Maksimilriano Moralrejeu (39) | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 5 Kai Teurewin (25) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 21 Eideun Onil (28) | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 26 Axel Agustin Ojeda (22) | 5 | 2 | - |
| MF | 55 Kiteun Alreksandeo Pakeuseu (29) | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| MF | 29 Maximo Carrizo (18) | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 7 Nikolraseu Pereunandeseu Mereukau (26) | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| DF | 24 Taibon Geurei (24) | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| DF | 13 Tiago Matinseu (31) | 5 | 0 | - |
| DF | 22 Kevin Otul (28) | 5 | 0 | - |
| DF | 34 Raul Guseutabo Pereira Bikalho (27) | 4 | 0 | - |
| DF | 19 Seuteurahinja Tanasiyebichi (29) | 1 | 0 | - |
| GK | 49 Maetyu Peurijeu (28) | 5 | 0 | - |
New York Red Bulls
16 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 10 Emil Forsberg (35) | 5 | 0 | - |
| FW | 16 Julian Hall (18) | 5 | 4 | - |
| FW | 7 Keideu Kowel (23) | 4 | 0 | - |
| FW | 13 Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (37) | 4 | 1 | - |
| FW | 70 Aendi Rojas (21) | 2 | 0 | - |
| MF | 11 Horeuhe Ruvalcaba (25) | 5 | 0 | - |
| MF | 3 Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty (22) | 5 | 0 | - |
| MF | 48 Ronald Donkor (22) | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 4 Guseutapeu Bereugeuren (29) | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 2 Justin Che Hamstring injury | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 5 Omar Valencia (22) | 4 | 0 | - |
| DF | 6 Robert Voloder (25) | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 20 Juan Mina (22) | 3 | 0 | - |
| DF | 26 Tim Parker (33) | 2 | 0 | - |
| DF | 12 Dilreon Nilriseu (28) Ankle injury | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| GK | 34 Edan Hobaseu (31) | 5 | 0 | - |
Detailed Analysis
Match Outlook
Head-to-head history is close in recent years, with NYCFC slightly ahead but Red Bulls stronger all-time.
Team Status
Home advantage favors NYCFC, but Red Bulls' pressing style can unsettle them.
Stored match probabilities
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
Home win37.0%
Draw34.0%
Away win29.0%
Stored forecast agreement details
Home Win66%
Draw33%
Away Win0%
🔎 Forecast Agreement
2 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Show each forecast
ChatGPT · Forecast 1
60%Prediction: Draw
Score: 1 - 1
- Both teams are in strong recent form with solid defensive records.
- Head-to-head history is close in recent years, with NYCFC slightly ahead but Red Bulls stronger all-time.
- Home advantage favors NYCFC, but Red Bulls' pressing style can unsettle them.
Read full reasoning
Based on current (June 2024) data, both teams are performing well and are closely matched in the standings. NYCFC has improved defensively and performs well at home, while the Red Bulls have a potent attack and a good away record. Recent derby matches have tended to be low-scoring and tightly contested, often decided by single moments. With no major injury concerns and both squads having strong lineups, a draw appears the most likely outcome given the data, though home advantage gives NYCFC a slight edge.
Claude · Forecast 2
58%Prediction: New York City Win
Score: 2 - 1
- NYCFC's recent form improvement with 3 wins in last 5 games and strengthened defense under new tactical system
- Home advantage at Yankee Stadium where NYCFC has strong record (5W-2D-2L) versus RBNY's weaker away form (3W-3D-3L)
- Head-to-head momentum favors NYCFC with 3 wins in last 5 meetings, reversing historical Red Bulls dominance
- Red Bulls marginally better in goal-scoring consistency (1.67 vs 1.50 GPG) but NYCFC's defensive improvements limiting opportunities
- Derby nature and competitive balance means draw/away upset remains viable despite NYCFC favorability
Read full reasoning
NYCFC enters as narrow favorites based on current trajectory and home advantage. The team has shown marked improvement since May with better defensive organization (only 4 goals conceded in last 5 games) and solid offensive output. Critically, NYCFC dominates the recent head-to-head record (3W-2D-1L last 5) and maintains a strong home record at Yankee Stadium. Red Bulls, while ranking higher in standings and possessing creative threats in Morgan and Forsberg, show inconsistency away from home and have potential injury concerns with Amaya questionable. However, this remains a competitive derby—Red Bulls' 15 historical wins and 2 wins in last 5 H2H, combined with their high-press attacking approach, presents genuine upset potential. A 2-1 NYCFC victory reflects the slight home edge while acknowledging the tactical quality of both teams.
Gemini · Forecast 3
55%Prediction: New York City Win
Score: 2 - 1
- NYCFC has secured 3 wins in the last 5 head-to-head Hudson River Derby matches.
- NYCFC maintains a strong home record (5-2-2 in mid-2024) and improved defensive stability.
- The Red Bulls' high-press system creates high xG but often leads to defensive lapses on the road.
Read full reasoning
The Hudson River Derby is characterized by high intensity and tactical rigidity. NYCFC has shown significant improvement in defensive organization, conceding only four goals in their last five matches as of June 2024. Their ability to manage the game at home, combined with recent success against RBNY, gives them a slight edge. The Red Bulls possess a potent offense led by Lewis Morgan and Emil Forsberg, but their away form has been middling, often struggling to maintain defensive discipline over 90 minutes. Historically, RBNY dominates the all-time series, but the current momentum favors the 'Boys in Blue.' Given the 2026 date, this analysis relies on the 2024 trajectory, which shows NYCFC closing the gap on their rivals through superior midfield control and tactical adaptability. Expect a low-margin victory for the home side in a typical derby atmosphere.