Key Analysis
Charlotte FC are strong at home with a solid defensive record.
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⚽ Football
MLS
🏠
Charlotte
Home
Scheduled
VS
Match Time
2026-09-26
22:30
Chicago Fire
Away
Korean market · Odds & records
🏟 뱅크 오브 아메리카 스타디움
● Charlotte 2025 · 4th · 19W 2D 13L (GD +9)
● Chicago Fire 2025 · 8th · 15W 8D 11L (GD +8)
Charlotte favored
60%
Confidence
High
- · Charlotte last 5: 3W 2D 0L
- · Head-to-head 9 matches: home 5W 0D 4L
- · Data-based estimate points the same way
AI analysis 2026-09-19 23:10
·
data as of 2026-09-26 15:06
🎯 Tokti AI Prediction
Prediction
Charlotte Win
Confidence
72%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Key Analysis Points
- ✓ Charlotte FC are strong at home with a solid defensive record.
- ✓ Chicago Fire have poor away form and a weak defense, conceding 1.58 goals per game.
- ✓ Head-to-head matches are typically close, but recent trends favor Charlotte, especially with their playoff motivation.
Recommended Bets:
Home Win
(72%)
Under 2.5
(67%)
📊 Win Probability
Charlotte
Chicago Fire
60.0%
25.0%
15.0%
Home 60.0%
Draw 25.0%
Away 15.0%
💰 EV Analysis
Overround: 14.9%| Outcome | Odds | Market Prob | AI Prob | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Win | 2.04 | 42.7% | 60.0% | +22.4% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 24.5% | 25.0% | -11.3% |
| Chicago Fire Win | 2.65 | 32.8% | 15.0% | -60.3% |
🔥
Value Bet Detected
Charlotte Win
@ 2.04
High Odds
EV +22.4%
Kelly 21.5%
📊 High Odds Investment: Value bets with odds ≥ 2.0 have lower hit rates but positive expected returns over time. The math works when you bet consistently — even hitting 1 out of 3 at 4.0x odds yields profit. Never bet more than Kelly suggests. Patience and bankroll discipline are key.
📈 Historical results at this odds range
Home odds 2.00~2.09
Home Win 41.8% · Away Win 30.2% · Draw 28.1%
(3,415 matches, 2009~2026)
Draw odds 3.50~3.59
Home Win 43.9% · Away Win 31.3% · Draw 24.8%
(4,070 matches, 2009~2026)
Away odds 2.60~2.69
Home Win 39.7% · Draw 30.2% · Away Win 30.1%
(2,236 matches, 2009~2026)
🧭 Market Signals
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Where the money went
Payout 87.0%
46.9%
43.6%
Home 46.9%
Draw 43.6%
Away 9.4%
Most likely scorelines
2-1
8.93%
2-0
8.93%
3-0
8.09%
3-1
8.06%
1-1
6.62%
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Compared across 24 bookmakers.
🟢
GREEN
Safe Bet
Max probability 60.0% · Gap 35.0%p
Strategy: Clear favorite detected. Consider the main market or safe derivative options below for steady compound returns.
Analysis data as of 2026-09-26 15:06
📋 Last 5 Matches
Analysis Data · Recent results
Charlotte
D
W
D
W
W
View 5 recent results
2026-09-13
MLS
FC Cincinnati
3 : 3
Charlotte
2026-09-10
MLS
CF Montreal
1 : 2
Charlotte
2026-09-06
MLS
Charlotte
0 : 0
Houston Dynamo
2026-08-30
MLS
Atlanta Utd
0 : 2
Charlotte
2026-08-23
MLS
Charlotte
3 : 1
DC United
Chicago Fire
L
D
D
D
L
View 5 recent results
2026-09-14
MLS
Chicago Fire
1 : 2
New England Revolution
2026-09-10
MLS
Chicago Fire
1 : 1
Inter Miami
2026-09-06
MLS
Toronto FC
4 : 4
Chicago Fire
2026-08-30
MLS
Seattle Sounders
2 : 2
Chicago Fire
2026-08-26
Leagues Cup
Monterrey
2 : 1
Chicago Fire
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
9
Home Wins
5
Draws
0
Away Wins
4
Average total goals
4.0
Recent matches
2026-08-02
MLS
Chicago Fire
2 - 1
Charlotte
Away team won
2025-06-29
MLS
Chicago Fire
3 - 2
Charlotte
Away team won
2025-05-18
MLS
Charlotte
1 - 4
Chicago Fire
Away team won
2024-10-03
MLS
Charlotte
4 - 3
Chicago Fire
Home team won
2024-05-16
MLS
Chicago Fire
0 - 1
Charlotte
Home team won
Last meeting: 2026-08-02 (2-1)
📊 Season Summary
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Charlotte
Rank
10
Games played
25
Record
11W · 7D · 7L
Standing points
40
Standing points / match
1.6
Goals for / against
45 / 36
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.8 / 1.44
Chicago Fire
Rank
11
Games played
24
Record
11W · 6D · 7L
Standing points
39
Standing points / match
1.63
Goals for / against
45 / 35
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.88 / 1.46
🎯 Betting Options
All available bet types with odds
The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
More metrics
🕸️ Team Style Comparison
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Charlotte
GOAL
71
ATTACK
41
RS
71
RA
54
DEFENSE
74
Chicago Fire
GOAL
49
ATTACK
49
RS
63
RA
46
DEFENSE
64
📈 Recent Form Trend
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Charlotte
↑
4.62
Strong upward trend
Chicago Fire
↑
0.24
Stable
⚖️ Performance Metrics
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
1.6
Standing points / match
1.63
1.8
Avg goals scored
1.88
1.44
Avg goals allowed
1.46
Home/Away records
1.92
Standing points / match
1.42
2
Avg goals scored
1.92
1
Avg goals allowed
1.75
Recent
1.88
Standing points / match
1.63
2.13
Avg goals scored
1.88
1.38
Avg goals allowed
1.63
🔥 Streaks
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Charlotte
Overall
Unbeaten 7
Winless 1
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 7
At Home
Unbeaten 6
Winless 1
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 6
Away
Unbeaten 4
Winless 1
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 4
Chicago Fire
Overall
Lose 1
Winless 5
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 7
At Home
Lose 1
Winless 2
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 4
Away
Unbeaten 4
Winless 3
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 5
📚 Season History
Rank and record by season
Charlotte
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Major League Soccer | #4 | 19W 2D 13L | +9 GD | 1.62 / 1.35 |
| 2024 | Major League Soccer | #5 | 14W 9D 11L | +9 GD | 1.35 / 1.09 |
| 2023 | Major League Soccer | #9 | 10W 13D 11L | -7 GD | 1.32 / 1.53 |
| 2022 | Major League Soccer | #9 | 13W 3D 18L | 42 pts -8 GD | 1.29 / 1.53 |
Chicago Fire
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Major League Soccer | #8 | 15W 8D 11L | +8 GD | 2.0 / 1.76 |
| 2024 | Major League Soccer | #15 | 7W 9D 18L | -22 GD | 1.18 / 1.82 |
| 2023 | Major League Soccer | #13 | 10W 10D 14L | -12 GD | 1.15 / 1.5 |
| 2022 | Major League Soccer | #12 | 10W 9D 15L | 39 pts -9 GD | 1.15 / 1.41 |
| 2021 | Major League Soccer | #12 | 9W 7D 18L | 34 pts -18 GD | 1.06 / 1.59 |
👥 Squads
Registered players with season stats
Charlotte
15 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 18 Kalderon Bareugaseu Keowin Andeureseu | 5 | 1 | - |
| FW | 10 Bilpeuriteu Jaha (34) | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| FW | 11 Riel Abada (25) | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 7 Achi Gutwin (22) | 3 | 2 | - |
| MF | 8 Aesyulri Weseuteuudeu (36) | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 16 Pep Biel (30) | 5 | 4 | - |
| MF | 13 Brandt Bronico (31) | 4 | 0 | - |
| MF | 17 Ruka Deu Ra Tore (28) | 4 | 0 | - |
| MF | 28 Diani Jibeuril | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 4 Andrew Privett (26) | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 15 Haeri Topolro (31) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 3 Tim Rim (39) | 5 | 0 | - |
| DF | 14 Nadan Beon (34) | 5 | 0 | - |
| DF | 23 Deibideu Syunegeu (28) | 2 | 0 | - |
| GK | 1 Keuriseutijan Kalrina (34) | 5 | 0 | - |
Chicago Fire
16 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 9 Hyugo Kaipeoseu (29) | 4 | 4 | - |
| FW | 19 Jonadan Bamba (30) | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| FW | 8 Keuriseu Myulreo (30) Lower body injury | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 11 Pilrip Jinkeonagel (32) Injured | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| MF | 6 Anton Jonseun Salreteuroseu (30) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 17 Robin Rodeu (33) | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 35 Sergio Oregel (21) | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 2 Leonardo Barroso (56) | 5 | 0 | - |
| DF | 7 Maren Hailreselrasie (27) | 5 | 0 | - |
| DF | 16 Joel Woteomaen (30) | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 22 Maurisio Pineda (29) | 3 | 0 | - |
| DF | 3 Jaek Elrieot (31) Illness | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 24 Robert Jonathan Jr. Dean (29) | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 15 Aendeuryu Guteuman (30) | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 5 Samuel Rojeoseu (27) Lower body injury | 1 | 0 | - |
| GK | 1 Keuriseu Beuraedi (22) | 5 | 0 | - |
Detailed Analysis
Match Outlook
Chicago Fire have poor away form and a weak defense, conceding 1.58 goals per game.
Team Status
Head-to-head matches are typically close, but recent trends favor Charlotte, especially with their playoff motivation.
Stored match probabilities
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
Home win60.0%
Draw25.0%
Away win15.0%
Stored forecast agreement details
Home Win100%
Draw0%
Away Win0%
🔎 Forecast Agreement
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Show each forecast
ChatGPT · Forecast 1
75%Prediction: Charlotte Win
Score: 2 - 0
- Charlotte FC are strong at home with a solid defensive record.
- Chicago Fire have poor away form and a weak defense, conceding 1.58 goals per game.
- Head-to-head matches are typically close, but recent trends favor Charlotte, especially with their playoff motivation.
Read full reasoning
Based on form up to June 2024, Charlotte FC have a clear edge at home, conceding less than a goal per game and maintaining a positive home record. Chicago Fire struggle away, with only 1 win in 10 road games and the worst defensive stats among the two. While both teams' head-to-head history is balanced, Charlotte's defensive structure under Dean Smith and Chicago's attacking struggles suggest the hosts are likely to control the match. Expect a low-scoring game, but Charlotte should capitalize on home advantage and Chicago's inconsistency.
Claude · Forecast 2
68%Prediction: Charlotte Win
Score: 2 - 0
- Charlotte's strong home record (5W-2D-2L) vs Chicago's poor away form (1W-2D-7L)
- Charlotte's defensive solidity and pragmatic setup under Dean Smith creates barriers for Chicago's weak attack
- Chicago Fire's goal difference (-12) and recent form (1W-3L in last 5) suggest vulnerability against motivated Charlotte side
- Head-to-head history balanced but Charlotte advantage at home
- Świderski and Charlotte attack must exploit Chicago's leaky defense (30 GA in 19 games)
Read full reasoning
Charlotte FC holds a significant advantage in this matchup based on multiple converging factors. Charlotte are sitting 4th in the Eastern Conference with strong home credentials (5W-2D-2L) and defensive organization under Dean Smith, while Chicago Fire are in crisis form, particularly away from home where they've won just once in their last 9 road matches (1W-2D-7L). Chicago's defensive fragility (30 goals conceded in 19 games vs Charlotte's 18) combined with their anemic attack (0.95 goals per game) makes them vulnerable against Charlotte's solid backline. The head-to-head record is balanced historically, but Charlotte's home advantage is decisive. With Świderski leading the attack and Shaqiri potentially unavailable or underdone for Chicago, Charlotte should control this match and secure a low-scoring home victory.
Gemini · Forecast 3
75%Prediction: Charlotte Win
Score: 2 - 0
- Charlotte's exceptional defensive record at home under Dean Smith's management.
- Chicago Fire's persistent struggles on the road, including a high loss rate in away fixtures.
- The pragmatic tactical setup of Charlotte FC which historically stifles low-scoring opponents like Chicago.
Read full reasoning
Charlotte FC enters this matchup as the clear favorite, primarily driven by their defensive organization under Dean Smith. Their pragmatic style of play often results in narrow but controlled victories, which aligns well against a Chicago side that has historically struggled for goals and consistency. Chicago Fire's away form is a significant concern, with a high loss rate on the road and a goal difference that suggests defensive fragility. While creative players like Shaqiri provide occasional sparks, the lack of a consistent finishing threat makes it difficult to see them overcoming Charlotte's disciplined backline. Given the historical parity in head-to-head records but the stark difference in current trajectory, Charlotte's home advantage and superior defensive structure should see them secure the win.