Key Analysis
Austin FC has established MLS experience and a stable core, especially at home.
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⚽ Football
MLS
Austin FC
Home
Scheduled
VS
Match Time
2026-09-26
23:30
✈️
San Diego FC
Away
Korean market · Odds & records
🏟 Q2 스타디움
● Austin FC 2025 · 6th · 13W 8D 13L (GD -8)
● San Diego FC 2025 · 1st · 19W 6D 9L (GD +23)
Austin FC favored
52%
Confidence
Medium
- · Austin FC last 5: 2W 2D 1L
- · Head-to-head 3 matches: home 1W 0D 2L
- · Data-based estimate points the same way
AI analysis 2026-09-20 01:00
·
data as of 2026-09-26 14:02
🎯 Tokti AI Prediction
Prediction
Austin FC Win
Confidence
52%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Key Analysis Points
- ✓ Austin FC has established MLS experience and a stable core, especially at home.
- ✓ San Diego FC will still be in the early phase of development with unknown roster and cohesion.
- ✓ Austin FC's defensive solidity and home record give them a clear edge.
Recommended Bets:
Home Win
(52%)
Over 2.5
(47%)
📊 Win Probability
Austin FC
San Diego FC
52.5%
27.5%
20.0%
Home 52.5%
Draw 27.5%
Away 20.0%
💰 EV Analysis
Overround: 14.9%| Outcome | Odds | Market Prob | AI Prob | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin FC Win | 2.18 | 39.9% | 52.5% | +14.5% |
| Draw | 3.45 | 25.2% | 27.5% | -5.1% |
| San Diego FC Win | 2.5 | 34.8% | 20.0% | -50.0% |
🔥
Value Bet Detected
Austin FC Win
@ 2.18
High Odds
EV +14.5%
Kelly 12.2%
📊 High Odds Investment: Value bets with odds ≥ 2.0 have lower hit rates but positive expected returns over time. The math works when you bet consistently — even hitting 1 out of 3 at 4.0x odds yields profit. Never bet more than Kelly suggests. Patience and bankroll discipline are key.
📈 Historical results at this odds range
Home odds 2.10~2.19
Home Win 40.5% · Away Win 30.4% · Draw 29.1%
(3,256 matches, 2009~2026)
Draw odds 3.40~3.49
Home Win 43.1% · Away Win 30.3% · Draw 26.6%
(5,589 matches, 2009~2026)
Away odds 2.50~2.59
Home Win 36.5% · Away Win 33.3% · Draw 30.2%
(2,263 matches, 2009~2026)
🧭 Market Signals
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Where the money went
Payout 87.1%
22.6%
66.7%
Home 22.6%
Draw 66.7%
Away 10.7%
Most likely scorelines
1-0
14.66%
2-0
13.29%
1-1
10.31%
2-1
9.29%
0-0
8.05%
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Compared across 24 bookmakers.
🟡
YELLOW
Caution
Max probability 52.5% · Gap 25.0%p
Strategy: Uncertain match. Avoid single 1X2 bets — use Double Chance or Over/Under markets below to protect your bankroll.
Analysis data as of 2026-09-26 14:02
📋 Last 5 Matches
Analysis Data · Recent results
Austin FC
W
D
D
W
L
View 5 recent results
2026-09-14
MLS
Vancouver Whitecaps
1 : 2
Austin FC
2026-09-10
MLS
Austin FC
1 : 1
Colorado Rapids
2026-09-06
MLS
Austin FC
1 : 1
San Jose Earthquakes
2026-08-30
MLS
Portland Timbers
1 : 2
Austin FC
2026-08-27
Leagues Cup
Toluca
2 : 0
Austin FC
San Diego FC
L
L
L
W
W
View 5 recent results
2026-09-14
MLS
San Diego FC
0 : 5
Philadelphia Union
2026-09-10
MLS
San Diego FC
2 : 3
San Jose Earthquakes
2026-09-06
MLS
Orlando City
1 : 0
San Diego FC
2026-08-30
MLS
San Diego FC
3 : 1
Los Angeles Galaxy
2026-08-23
MLS
San Diego FC
3 : 0
Colorado Rapids
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
3
Home Wins
1
Draws
0
Away Wins
2
Average total goals
3.33
Recent matches
2026-05-14
MLS
San Diego FC
5 - 0
Austin FC
Away team won
2025-06-01
MLS
San Diego FC
2 - 0
Austin FC
Away team won
2025-03-24
MLS
Austin FC
2 - 1
San Diego FC
Home team won
Last meeting: 2026-05-14 (5-0)
📊 Season Summary
Analysis Data · Current season stats
Austin FC
Rank
25
Games played
25
Record
7W · 8D · 10L
Standing points
29
Standing points / match
1.16
Goals for / against
32 / 44
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.28 / 1.76
San Diego FC
Rank
19
Games played
25
Record
8W · 6D · 11L
Standing points
30
Standing points / match
1.2
Goals for / against
42 / 42
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.68 / 1.68
🎯 Betting Options
All available bet types with odds
The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
More metrics
🕸️ Team Style Comparison
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
Austin FC
GOAL
44
ATTACK
27
RS
42
RA
62
DEFENSE
74
San Diego FC
GOAL
23
ATTACK
23
RS
46
RA
42
DEFENSE
67
📈 Recent Form Trend
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
Austin FC
↑
8.65
Strong upward trend
San Diego FC
↑
2.37
Strong upward trend
⚖️ Performance Metrics
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
1.16
Standing points / match
1.2
1.28
Avg goals scored
1.68
1.76
Avg goals allowed
1.68
Home/Away records
1.42
Standing points / match
0.82
1.33
Avg goals scored
0.91
1
Avg goals allowed
1.64
Recent
1.5
Standing points / match
1.25
1.25
Avg goals scored
1.38
1.13
Avg goals allowed
1.75
🔥 Streaks
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
Austin FC
Overall
Win 1
Unbeaten 6
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 6
At Home
Unbeaten 3
Winless 4
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 3
Away
Win 3
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 3
San Diego FC
Overall
Lose 3
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 5
At Home
Lose 2
Best: Win 3 · Unbeaten 3
Away
Lose 2
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 2
📚 Season History
Rank and record by season
Austin FC
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Major League Soccer | #6 | 13W 8D 13L | -8 GD | 1.09 / 1.32 |
| 2024 | Major League Soccer | #10 | 11W 9D 14L | -9 GD | 1.15 / 1.41 |
| 2023 | Major League Soccer | #12 | 10W 9D 15L | -6 GD | 1.44 / 1.62 |
| 2022 | Major League Soccer | #2 | 16W 8D 10L | 56 pts +16 GD | 1.91 / 1.44 |
| 2021 | Major League Soccer | #12 | 9W 4D 21L | 31 pts -21 GD | 1.03 / 1.65 |
San Diego FC
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Major League Soccer | #1 | 19W 6D 9L | +23 GD | 1.88 / 1.21 |
👥 Squads
Registered players with season stats
Austin FC
21 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 17 Jon Gaelreogeo (30) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 11 Pasundo Daenieol Toreseu Perejeu (26) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 10 Ujeuni Mireuto (31) | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| FW | 7 Jeideun Nelseun (24) Hamstring injury | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| FW | 19 Calvin Fodrey (22) | 4 | 0 | - |
| FW | 21 Keuriseutian Ramirejeu (35) | 4 | 1 | - |
| MF | 30 Josep Rojalreseu (26) | 5 | 0 | - |
| MF | 6 Ilri Sancheseu (36) | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 20 Nikolraseu Dubersarsky (2026) | 4 | 0 | - |
| MF | 14 Besadeu Sabobichi (28) | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 8 Daniel Pereira (26) Hamstring injury | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| MF | 24 Horeuhe Alastuey (23) | 1 | 0 | - |
| MF | 16 Robeoteu Teilreo (32) Knee injury | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 15 Jon Bel (29) | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| DF | 4 Beurendan Hainjeuikeu (32) | 5 | 1 | - |
| DF | 5 Olreksandeureu Seubatokeu (32) | 5 | 0 | - |
| DF | 29 Gilreume De Teurindade Dwibaseu (26) | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| DF | 23 Jan Kolmaenik (26) | 2 | 0 | - |
| DF | 35 Mateya Joreudeuyebichi (23) | 1 | 0 | - |
| DF | 3 Mikel Deseulreo (31) | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| GK | 1 Beuraedeu Seuteobeo (35) | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Detailed Analysis
Match Outlook
San Diego FC will still be in the early phase of development with unknown roster and cohesion.
Team Status
Austin FC's defensive solidity and home record give them a clear edge.
Stored match probabilities
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
Home win53.0%
Draw28.0%
Away win20.0%
Stored forecast agreement details
Home Win100%
Draw0%
Away Win0%
🔎 Forecast Agreement
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Show each forecast
ChatGPT · Forecast 1
65%Prediction: Austin FC Win
Score: 2 - 0
- Austin FC has established MLS experience and a stable core, especially at home.
- San Diego FC will still be in the early phase of development with unknown roster and cohesion.
- Austin FC's defensive solidity and home record give them a clear edge.
Read full reasoning
Given San Diego FC's lack of MLS experience and the unknowns around their 2026 roster, Austin FC is the logical favorite, especially at home where they have performed well. Austin's defensive improvements and established squad provide them a stability advantage over an expansion team likely still finding its identity. However, due to the distant match date and San Diego's unknown progression, confidence and analysis strength are limited.
Claude · Forecast 2
52%Prediction: Austin FC Win
Score: 2 - 1
- Austin FC has home advantage with stronger home record (4W-4D-1L) versus away record
- San Diego FC entering their second full MLS season in 2026 with developing roster and tactical identity still uncertain
- Austin FC shows defensive solidity in 2024 but offensive inconsistency remains; home field may boost attacking output
- Lack of head-to-head history and limited data on San Diego's 2025-2026 trajectory creates significant uncertainty for this fixture
Read full reasoning
This prediction carries significant uncertainty due to data constraints. Austin FC's June 2024 form shows a mid-table team (7th place, +25 pts) with defensive improvements but persistent attacking struggles (1.22 goals/game). Their home record is notably stronger at 4-4-1 versus 2-3-4 on the road. However, San Diego FC doesn't debut until 2025, making the September 2026 matchup unpredictable—by then, they'll have 1.5+ seasons of MLS experience, potentially strengthened rosters, and an established tactical system. A competitive draw or San Diego upset remains highly plausible.
Gemini · Forecast 3
40%Prediction: Austin FC Win
Score: 2 - 1
- Home field advantage at Q2 Stadium is a significant factor for Austin FC.
- San Diego FC will be in only their second season, likely still building team chemistry.
- Austin's established defensive structure vs. an expansion side's typical road struggles.
Read full reasoning
Austin FC has historically relied on a strong home record at Q2 Stadium to maintain their standing in the Western Conference. By September 2026, Austin's core leadership, including talisman Sébastian Driussi, should provide a level of tactical continuity that expansion sides often lack. Their possession-based style is designed to wear down opponents, making it difficult for visiting teams to find a rhythm. San Diego FC, entering their second season in 2026, will likely still be navigating the complexities of MLS roster building and salary cap management. While expansion teams can be unpredictable, the historical trend favors established home sides in late-season matchups. Expect a competitive match as both teams push for playoff positioning, but Austin's familiarity with their environment and more mature squad depth give them the edge. The low analysis strength reflects the inherent uncertainty of predicting a match involving a team that has not yet played its inaugural game.