Key Analysis
AC Milan are consistently strong at home, with only 2 home losses last season.
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⚽ Football
Serie A
⭐ Featured
AC Milan
Home
Final
3
-
0
AC Milan Win
2026-09-20 17:45
Lecce
Away
📋
5 ROUND
🗓
2026/2027
🏆
SUMMRIZE
Korean market · Odds & records
🏟 스타디오 산 시로
● AC Milan 2025/2026 · 5th · 20W 10D 8L (GD +18)
● Lecce 2025/2026 · 17th · 10W 8D 20L (GD -22)
🎯 Prediction Accuracy
AI Predicted
AC Milan Win
Prediction Correct!🎯 Tokti AI Prediction
Prediction
AC Milan Win
Confidence
82%
How strongly our analysis backs this pick
Predicted Score
3 - 0
Key Analysis Points
- ✓ AC Milan are consistently strong at home, with only 2 home losses last season.
- ✓ Lecce struggle offensively and rarely win away matches, scoring less than 1 goal per game.
- ✓ Head-to-head history shows Milan's dominance, especially at San Siro.
Recommended Bets:
Home Win
(82%)
Over 2.5
(70%)
📊 Win Probability
AC Milan
Lecce
72.5%
18.5%
Home 72.5%
Draw 18.5%
Away 9.0%
🧭 Market Signals
What buyers actually backed, and how the odds moved
Where the money went
Payout 87.0%
71.8%
16.7%
Home 71.8%
Draw 11.5%
Away 16.7%
Most likely scorelines
1-0
13.22%
1-1
11.75%
2-0
10.81%
2-1
9.25%
0-0
8.07%
Next fixtures
AC Milan
10/12
A
Sassuolo
Serie A
10/16
A
Red Bull Salzburg
UEFA Europa League
10/19
H
Atalanta
Serie A
US Lecce
10/11
H
Bologna
Serie A
10/18
A
Udinese
Serie A
10/26
H
Juventus
Serie A
Compared across 22 bookmakers.
🟢
GREEN
Safe Bet
Max probability 72.5% · Gap 54.0%p
Analysis data as of 2026-09-24 23:07
Records as of this match, not the teams' current form.
📋 Last 5 Matches
Analysis Data · Recent results
AC Milan
D
D
W
W
L
View 5 recent results
2026-09-13
Serie A
Lazio
2 : 2
AC Milan
2026-09-07
Serie A
Juventus
1 : 1
AC Milan
2026-08-29
Serie A
AC Milan
2 : 0
Venezia
2026-08-24
Serie A
Torino
1 : 2
AC Milan
2026-05-25
Serie A
AC Milan
1 : 2
Cagliari
Lecce
W
L
L
W
L
View 5 recent results
2026-09-13
Serie A
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
2026-09-08
Serie A
Cagliari
1 : 0
Lecce
2026-09-01
Serie A
Lecce
0 : 4
AS Roma
2026-08-24
Serie A
Venezia
0 : 2
Lecce
2026-08-18
Coppa Italia
Palermo
2 : 0
Lecce
⚔️ Head-to-Head
Analysis Data · Recent meetings
Total
10
Home Wins
8
Draws
2
Away Wins
0
Average total goals
3.2
Recent matches
2026-01-19
Serie A
AC Milan
1 - 0
Lecce
Home team won
2025-09-24
Coppa Italia
AC Milan
3 - 0
Lecce
Home team won
2025-08-30
Serie A
Lecce
0 - 2
AC Milan
Home team won
2025-03-09
Serie A
Lecce
2 - 3
AC Milan
Home team won
2024-09-28
Serie A
AC Milan
3 - 0
Lecce
Home team won
Last meeting: 2026-01-19 (1-0)
📊 Season Summary
Analysis Data · Current season stats
AC Milan
Rank
5
Games played
4
Record
2W · 2D · 0L
Standing points
8
Standing points / match
2.0
Goals for / against
7 / 4
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.75 / 1.0
Lecce
Rank
11
Games played
4
Record
2W · 0D · 2L
Standing points
6
Standing points / match
1.5
Goals for / against
5 / 7
Avg goals scored / allowed
1.25 / 1.75
🎯 Betting Options
All available bet types with odds
The % under each odds figure is the odds-implied share. Tap a game number for odds movement and head-to-head records.
More metrics
🕸️ Team Style Comparison
Analysis Data · 5 source indices
AC Milan
GOAL
78
ATTACK
44
RS
58
RA
67
DEFENSE
77
Lecce
GOAL
29
ATTACK
29
RS
42
RA
42
DEFENSE
56
📈 Recent Form Trend
Analysis Data · Last 8 matches performance
AC Milan
↓
-11.86
Sharp decline
Lecce
↑
3.83
Strong upward trend
⚖️ Performance Metrics
Overall · home/away records · recent form
Overall
2
Standing points / match
1.5
1.75
Avg goals scored
1.25
1
Avg goals allowed
1.75
Home/Away records
3
Standing points / match
1.5
2
Avg goals scored
1
0
Avg goals allowed
0.5
Recent
2
Standing points / match
1.5
1.75
Avg goals scored
1.25
1
Avg goals allowed
1.75
🔥 Streaks
Analysis Data · Current form indicators
AC Milan
Overall
Unbeaten 4
Winless 2
Best: Win 2 · Unbeaten 4
At Home
Win 1
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Away
Unbeaten 3
Winless 2
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 3
Lecce
Overall
Win 1
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
At Home
Win 1
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
Away
Lose 1
Best: Win 1 · Unbeaten 1
📚 Season History
Rank and record by season
AC Milan
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Serie A | #5 | 20W 10D 8L | +18 GD | 1.39 / 0.92 |
| 2024/2025 | Serie A | #8 | 18W 9D 11L | +18 GD | 1.61 / 1.13 |
| 2023/2024 | Serie A | #2 | 22W 9D 7L | +27 GD | 2.0 / 1.29 |
| 2022/2023 | Serie A | #4 | 20W 10D 8L | 70 pts +21 GD | 1.68 / 1.13 |
| 2021/2022 | Serie A | #1 | 26W 8D 4L | 86 pts +38 GD | 1.82 / 0.82 |
Lecce
| Season | Comp. | Rank | Record | Standing points / win% / GD | Avg goals scored / allowed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | Serie A | #17 | 10W 8D 20L | -22 GD | 0.74 / 1.32 |
| 2024/2025 | Serie A | #17 | 8W 10D 20L | -31 GD | 0.71 / 1.53 |
| 2023/2024 | Serie A | #14 | 8W 14D 16L | -22 GD | 0.84 / 1.42 |
| 2022/2023 | Serie A | #16 | 8W 12D 18L | 36 pts -13 GD | 0.87 / 1.21 |
| 2021/2022 | Serie B | #1 | 19W 14D 5L | 71 pts +28 GD | 1.55 / 0.82 |
👥 Squads
Registered players with season stats
AC Milan
22 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 10 Hapael Reang (27) Muscle injury | 22 | 9 | 3 |
| FW | 9 Nikeulraseu Pwilkeurugeu (33) | 14 | 1 | - |
| FW | 7 Santiago Tomaseu Gimeneseu (25) | 10 | 0 | 2 |
| MF | 14 Luka Modrić (41) | 29 | 2 | 4 |
| MF | 56 Alexis Saelemaekers (27) | 28 | 2 | 4 |
| MF | 4 Saemyueol Richi (25) | 25 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 19 Yosupeu Popana (27) | 25 | 2 | 4 |
| MF | 18 Keuriseutopeo Eunkunku (29) | 24 | 5 | - |
| MF | 11 Christian Pulisic (28) | 23 | 8 | - |
| MF | 8 Ruben Ropeuteoseu-chikeu (30) | 23 | 3 | 1 |
| MF | 5 Koni De Winter | 22 | 1 | 1 |
| MF | 12 Adrien Rabiot (31) Knee injury | 21 | 5 | 6 1 |
| MF | 30 Ardon Jashari (24) | 9 | 0 | - |
| DF | 23 Pikayo Tomori (29) | 27 | 0 | 5 |
| DF | 31 Strahinja Pavlović (25) | 26 | 4 | 3 |
| DF | 46 Matteo Gabbia (27) Muscle injury | 24 | 0 | 3 |
| DF | 33 Davide Bartesaghi (21) | 24 | 2 | 2 |
| DF | 24 Zachary Athekame (22) | 20 | 1 | 3 |
| DF | 2 Pereubiseu Eseutopinan (28) | 16 | 1 | 3 1 |
| DF | 27 Dabideu Odogu (20) | 2 | 0 | - |
| GK | 16 Mike Maignan (31) | 29 | 0 | 3 |
| GK | 1 Pietro Terracciano (36) | 2 | 0 | - |
Lecce
24 playersView squad
| Pos | Player | GP | Goals | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FW | 50 Santiago Pierotti (25) | 29 | 1 | 2 |
| FW | 9 Nikola Stulic (25) | 28 | 3 | 1 |
| FW | 29 Lassana Coulibaly (30) Injured | 25 | 3 | 3 |
| FW | 19 Banda Ramek Injured | 24 | 3 | 6 1 |
| FW | 23 Rikareudo Sotil (27) Back injury | 21 | 1 | 1 |
| FW | 22 Francesco Camarda (18) Injured | 17 | 1 | 1 |
| FW | 99 Walrideu Cheddira (28) | 9 | 0 | - |
| MF | 20 Yelbeo Ramadani (30) | 29 | 1 | 7 |
| MF | 11 Konan N’Dri (26) | 20 | 2 | 2 |
| MF | 10 Medon Berisha (23) Thigh injury | 13 | 2 | - |
| MF | 16 Omri Gandelman (26) | 12 | 2 | - |
| MF | 6 Salra Alrekseu | 8 | 0 | - |
| MF | 14 Torireu Helgaseun (26) | 7 | 0 | - |
| MF | 79 Oumar Ngom (22) | 7 | 0 | - |
| MF | 8 Sadik Fofana | 4 | 0 | - |
| MF | 20 Olaf Gorter (2026) | 2 | 0 | - |
| MF | 99 Eujebio Di Peurancheseuko (57) | 0 | 0 | - |
| DF | 25 Antonino Gallo (26) | 30 | 0 | 2 |
| DF | 17 Danilru Veiga (24) | 28 | 0 | 7 |
| DF | 4 Kialonda Gaspar (56) Injured | 22 | 0 | 6 1 |
| DF | 5 Jamil Siebert (24) | 13 | 1 | 2 |
| DF | 3 Corrie Ndaba | 11 | 0 | - |
| DF | 18 Gaby Korentang (26) | 2 | 0 | - |
| GK | 30 Wladimiro Falcone (31) | 30 | 0 | 2 |
Detailed Analysis
Match Outlook
Lecce struggle offensively and rarely win away matches, scoring less than 1 goal per game.
Team Status
Head-to-head history shows Milan's dominance, especially at San Siro.
Stored match probabilities
Probabilities stored with this match. The combined AI forecast is shown separately above.
Home win72.0%
Draw18.0%
Away win9.0%
Stored forecast agreement details
Home Win100%
Draw0%
Away Win0%
🔎 Forecast Agreement
3 of 3 independent forecasts agree with the final pick.
Show each forecast
ChatGPT · Forecast 1
85%Prediction: AC Milan Win
Score: 3 - 0
- AC Milan are consistently strong at home, with only 2 home losses last season.
- Lecce struggle offensively and rarely win away matches, scoring less than 1 goal per game.
- Head-to-head history shows Milan's dominance, especially at San Siro.
Read full reasoning
Based on end-of-season 2023/24 data, AC Milan have a clear edge in quality, depth, and historical performance, especially at home. Lecce's away record is poor, and their attack is among the weakest in the league. With Milan transitioning to an attacking coach and maintaining a strong core squad, they are likely to control the match. Lecce's defensive setup may limit the margin, but Milan's superior firepower and home advantage make them heavy favorites.
Claude · Forecast 2
82%Prediction: AC Milan Win
Score: 3 - 1
- AC Milan's dominant home record (13W, 4D, 2L) versus Lecce's poor away form (2W, 6D, 11L)
- Historical head-to-head advantage: Milan 9 wins vs Lecce 1 win in last 20 years; Milan won 3-0 at San Siro in April 2024
- Milan's attacking prowess (2.0 goals/game avg, 76 goals scored) far exceeds Lecce's offensive capability (0.84 goals/game avg, only 32 goals)
- New AC Milan coach Paulo Fonseca brings attacking philosophy; Milan targeting Serie A title after finishing 2nd
- Lecce's defensive frailty (-22 goal difference) and goal-scoring drought (2 goals in last 5 matches) make away victory highly unlikely
Read full reasoning
AC Milan are overwhelming favorites at home against Lecce. Milan finished 2nd in Serie A (75 points) with exceptional home form, while Lecce finished 14th (38 points) with a dismal away record of only 2 wins in 19 away games. Historically, Milan dominate this fixture (9-1-7 record) with a recent 3-0 home victory in April 2024. Milan's new manager Paulo Fonseca, known for attacking football, will maximize their superior squad quality featuring Leão, Pulisic, and Giroud's replacement. Lecce's goal-scoring issues (winless in last 5 with only 2 goals) and defensive vulnerabilities (-22 goal difference) suggest they'll struggle significantly away at San Siro. While Lecce managed draws at home in recent meetings, their away record makes a draw or win virtually impossible.
Gemini · Forecast 3
80%Prediction: AC Milan Win
Score: 2 - 0
- AC Milan's historical dominance at San Siro against Lecce.
- Lecce's significant offensive struggles, especially in away fixtures.
- The tactical shift under Paulo Fonseca favoring high-possession attacking football.
Read full reasoning
AC Milan enters this fixture as heavy favorites, historically dominating Lecce, especially at the San Siro. Under the tactical shift of Paulo Fonseca, Milan has emphasized a high-possession, attacking style that exploits the width provided by stars like Rafael Leão. Their home record remains one of the strongest in Serie A, making it difficult for lower-table teams to find space or rhythm. Lecce’s primary challenge lies in their lack of offensive output, having averaged less than a goal per game in the previous season. While Luca Gotti has improved their defensive organization, their away form remains a significant liability. Facing a Milan side that consistently scores 2+ goals at home, Lecce will likely adopt a low-block strategy, but the disparity in individual quality across the pitch makes an upset highly improbable.